A daily compilation for DWR personnel of significant news articles and comment
July 6, 2007
1. Top Item
Controversial study warns of Delta flood; Farmers say massive earthquake scenario exaggerated
By Alex Breitler, staff writer
Delta islands may flood more than 200 times in the next century, and there is a chance of up to 30 or more levees crumbling simultaneously at a cost of $35 billion, according to a new analysis.
But some Delta farmers and water watchdogs say they believe the numbers are inflated to justify construction of a peripheral canal that would convey water around, rather than through, the Delta.
A study done for the state Department of Water Resources concludes there is a 28 percent chance that 30 or more islands could flood during an earthquake in the next 25 years.
"I think it's just a scare tactic," Delta farmer Mike Robinson said. "It's the worst-case scenario they can possibly come up with."
Some fear that faced with such a dismal forecast, the Delta will be dismissed, and efforts to restore the estuary will be abandoned.
"I view it as an attempt to categorize the Delta as not savable and, therefore, there is no alternative ... but to build a peripheral canal," said Dante Nomellini, a
The Delta provides drinking water for 25 million Californians, and many crops are grown on its islands. When its 1,345-mile levee system is breached, fresh water from the Delta pours over low-lying islands, creating a vacuum that is filled by saltwater "gulp" from the
This gulp could endanger freshwater supplies that are pumped from the Delta, the state says. A peripheral canal would take water from the
While farmers say the latest analysis is exaggerated, those who compiled the predictions for the state Department of Water Resources say the figures are based on historical conditions.
A total of 166 islands have flooded in the past century, according to Said Salah-Mars, who worked on the analysis for the engineering design firm URS Corp.
Anywhere from eight to 11 islands have been simultaneously swamped, he said.
"This is not unprecedented," Salah-Mars said.
What would be unprecedented, at least since the Delta wetlands were reclaimed, would be a devastating earthquake. The lack of such a quake to this point may lead people to believe it is not likely, but the odds grow as time passes, Salah-Mars said.
"Never having a local earthquake, we have a false sense of security," he said.
The new figures released late last month at a public meeting are not inflated, he said. If they seem high, it is because they consider a range of events, including large storms the likes of which have never taken place here.
The analysis also considers levees in their current state and does not account for improvements planned for the near future, he said.
South Delta farmer Alex Hildebrand questions the predicted expense of repairing flooded islands.
"The breaks we've had in the past have all been repaired within a few months," he said. "None of them have cost anything like a billion dollars." #
http://www.recordnet.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070706/A_NEWS/707060322
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