[Water_news] 2. DWR'S CALIFORNIA WATER NEWS: SUPPLY -11/3/08

Department of Water Resources

California Water News

A daily compilation of significant news articles and comment 

 

November 3, 2008

 

2. Supply –

 

This year, weather system is La Nada

Meteorologists: Unpredictible storm system may leave state facing another dry year.

Fresno Bee

 

Lore says it'll pour - early, that is

San Francisco Chronicle

 

Drought may put strain on utilities

Central Basin district proposes allocation plan

Whittier Daily News

 

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This year, weather system is La Nada

Meteorologists: Unpredictible storm system may leave state facing another dry year.

Fresno Bee – 11/2/08

By Mark Grossi, staff writer

 

Forecasters are flipping a coin when asked whether California will endure a third dry year in a row. Maybe yes, maybe no.

Meteorologists can't bet one way or the other this year because there is no warm-water El Niño or cold-water La Niña in the Pacific Ocean. El Niño can mean more rain; La Niña can mean less.

 

This year, the ocean is La Nada -- the unofficial term that means the ocean's water temperature is normal, offering no clues for forecasters and little encouragement for farmers or reservoir operators.

 

"I have yet to see a long-range forecast that I would put money on," said meteorologist and consultant Jan Null of Golden Gate Weather Services, based in Saratoga.

Uncertainty is the last thing San Joaquin Valley farmers and reservoir operators want to hear. Reservoirs already are down to about 60% of average for this time of year. The reserve in storage is dwindling with each dry year.

 

The rainfall season of 2006-07 was 59% of average, and the following year was about 73%, according to state records.

 

Farm and water officials say next summer will be ugly without at least average precipitation this winter. Crop fields will go out of production, adding millions of dollars in losses and unemployment to a bleak state economy.

 

There is one climate hint called the Madden/Julian Oscillation -- a powerful tropical wave of wind that circles the globe in 30 to 60 days.

 

The wave is occurring right now and helped bring the first significant rain and snow to the state this weekend.

 

Sometimes the wave also sets up a pineapple express, blowing a steady stream of storms thousands of miles across the Pacific into California. The storms this weekend could signal the start of a wet November.

 

But forecasting this wave is a longshot compared to El Niño and La Niña. The phenomenon is not well understood. Government scientists won't use it in predicting this winter's precipitation.

 

"We have no idea if it will continue through the winter," said Mike Halpert, deputy director of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center in Maryland.

 

Farmer Dan Errotabere, who is a board member for Westlands Water District, is preparing for the worst and hoping for the best.

 

Errotabere farms about 5,600 acres around Riverdale, Five Points and Huron. He buys Northern California river water from the federal Central Valley Project and uses deep-well pumps on his land. He's planting 30% to 40% less acreage this year, anticipating less irrigation water.

 

Errotabere places his highest priority on preserving his almond trees, a long-term investment. He cuts back on his annual planting of row crops, such as tomatoes. He said he will plant additional acreage if there is a lot of precipitation.

 

But, as a Westlands farmer, he also must contend with federal water cutbacks for endangered fish species. He might only get 50% of his federal allotment, even if there is a wet winter.

 

"It's a big crapshoot," Errotabere said. "I don't want to walk away from a crop next summer because I didn't get enough water. So I play a pretty conservative hand."

 

Reservoir operators share his anxiety. Ted Selb, deputy general manager at the Merced Irrigation District, said Lake McClure, the agency's primary reservoir, is short by almost 200,000 acre-feet of water at this point this year.

 

Each acre-foot -- 325,851 gallons or a year's supply for an average family in the Valley -- is precious, he said. The district spent $2.3 million pumping 100,000 acre-feet from its own wells last year to supplement farm supplies. #

http://www.fresnobee.com/local/story/982249.html

 

Lore says it'll pour - early, that is

San Francisco Chronicle – 11/2/08

Tom Stienstra, Chronicle Outdoors Writer

 

(11-01) 18:46 PDT -- There's a saying in nature, "Birds never lie."

There's another that goes: Onion skins very thin, mild winter coming in; Onion skins thick and tough, coming winter cold and rough."  

 

And those fuzzy caterpillars: I've seen a half dozen with thick, full coats in the past two weeks on mountain trails in Northern California.

There's more: A phenomenon in the ocean has formed called the Madden-Julian Oscillation. There's also a linked interface between ocean temperatures and coastal land temperatures in Humboldt County that can predict weather. And to time the arrival of storms, pay close attention to moon cycles.

 

I've received a lot of requests for my annual long-range weather forecast/guess for winter, and this is it:

Nature's signs mean a wet late fall and early winter, with significant storms arriving around the new moon of late November (Thanksgiving Day), and just prior to the full moon in early December (Dec. 8-10 looks promising). After a dry period in the early New Year, January and February will bring about average precipitation. I don't expect a terribly wet spring in March and April. The final result for winter will be about average rainfall, wetter in the beginning, a bit drier at the end,

 

This is why:

-- Birds never lie: The annual migration of sandhill cranes to the Woodbridge Ecological Reserve near Lodi and snow geese to Sacramento Wildlife Refuge near Willows is right on schedule. The timing of these migrations is often a reliable weather predictor.

 

-- Onion skins: The thickness of skins from onions grown in the San Joaquin Valley looks pretty average.

 

-- Caterpillars: Those furry coats indicate early, heavy precipitation is on the way.

 

--Ocean/land temperatures: A reliable theory I've developed is that when ocean temps and coast land temps are the same, the storms wheel right in. That's the case right now in Humboldt County, so look for wet weather. When the ocean is colder and the land is warmer, it often acts like a blockade and pushes the storms into Oregon, which creates periods of drought, like this past spring.

 

In the mountains, the effect of global climate change probably will have snow lines higher than normal for many storms - about 4,000 feet elevation in the north state and about 4,500 feet in the Sierra Nevada.

 

There is one piece of real science that supports this forecast: Weather experts have identified the formation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation offshore in the Pacific, which typically lasts about 50 days. This forms very wet storms propelled to the Pacific Coast. So wherever the jet stream delivers the storm highway this late fall and early winter, those storms could be very wet.

 

Last year's forecast, published on Oct. 28, hit the bulls-eye: "The Bay Area and Northern California will get a lot of rain through December and early January, then lighten considerably, with an early, warm spring, especially in the San Joaquin Valley. Southern California will face continuing drought."

 

Mountain lions galore

-- At Point Reyes: While hiking on the Coast Trail near Point Reyes Hostel the evening of Oct. 24, Eric Park spotted two mountain lions, a mother and her "teenager" cub. "Once-in-a-lifetime experience," he said.

 

-- Streak of light: Rebecca Geries of Siskiyou County was driving on a rural two-lane road near College of the Siskiyous when a mountain lion darted across the road right in front of her. Nearby at a small ranch, two goats were killed.

 

-- Black panther? Fish and Game says they don't exist, but another black mountain lion-sized cat was seen in the East Bay foothills. Larz Sherer, an experienced Bay Area hiker, saw the big cat off Redwood Road while hiking on the protected watershed of the East Bay Municipal Utility District. "It reminded me of a jaguar in the jungle," Sherer said.

 

-- And yet another: Michaela Graham also reported seeing "a big black cat," about 4 feet long, on the ridge at Miller-Knox Regional Shoreline in Richmond. "I've seen it twice in a couple weeks," she said. "Jet black."

 

-- At Mount Tam: Several reports, including photos, came in during the past week of a mountain lion sighting at Mount Tamalpais in Marin, including a distant silhouette of a lion's head rising up above the ridge against the sky.

 

Notes near, far

Search for otters, Part 1: On a trip to the spectacular Point Lobos State Reserve near Carmel, field scout Jim Dwyer reported sighting just one otter in six hours. "But it was a great show, cracking open and eating an abalone for about 20 minutes," Dwyer reported.

Search for otters, Part 2: Elkhorn Slough at Moss Landing is the best bet in the state to see the colony of sea otters, best done by kayak (inexpensive rentals available). That's how Penny Palmer found them last week. "I took a few photographs of the sea otters and their babes, an incredible sight to watch."

Disappearing lake: The best walk at Jack London State Historic Park in Sonoma is the Lake Trail, except the "lake" (actually a pond) has disappeared, noted Lucy Johns. Apparently, the earth dam was leaking, according to an interpretive specialist, and more water trickled out than trickled in.

$50 reward: A $50 reward has been posted at Los Vaqueros Reservoir near Livermore for any angler who breaks the trout record of 10.56 pounds.#

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/11/02/SPN313RHE6.DTL

 

Drought may put strain on utilities

Central Basin district proposes allocation plan

Whittier Daily News – 11/2/08

By Mike Sprague, Staff Writer

The statewide drought could become a financial drain for many local water utilities.

The Central Basin Municipal Water District, which serves this area, has developed a water supply allocation plan in case Metropolitan Water District activates its drought plan.

 

Local agencies could be required to reduce their water use by as little as 2 percent (stage one) or up to as much as 58 percent (stage 10).

The penalties for exceeding your limit will be severe, ranging from 21/2 times to five times the amount utilities already pay Central Basin.

The district buys water from MWD and then resells it to water utilities in the southeast area of Los Angeles County.

 

In light of Thursday's announcement that the state Water Project may only allocate 15 percent of MWD's normal allotment, Art Aguilar, Central Basin general manager, said he believes the plan will be activated.

 

"I don't know what stage they'll call, but I'm fairly certain Metropolitan will call an alert," Aguilar predicted.

It would take a "miracle in rainfall" this year for the plan not to be activated, Aguilar said.

 

Aguilar said he believes the plan, which may still get tinkering, is fair.

 

"We tried to take the numbers we've been given from MWD and allocate them both on need and a fair split so the suffering is felt by everybody," he said.

The plan was only unveiled to the board last week and on Friday was sent to all of the district's customers. A workshop is planned before the board would be asked to approve it - most likely in January, said David Hill, water resources manager for Central Basin.

 

Many officials from Whittier-area utilities say they're concerned about having to reduce their water usage to avoid the penalties.

None used the word "rationing" in their responses to the plan.

 

Instead of paying $631 per acre-foot, they could be paying an additional $1,500 to $3,000, depending on how much they go over their allotment.

 

"It's concerning because we are 50 percent reliant on MWD for our water," said Tom Coleman, general manager for Orchard Daley Water District, which serves much of unincorporated South Whittier.

 

"It'd be very difficult if we ever got to stage 10, if not impossible," Coleman said. "We'll just have to take it as it comes and do our best to conserve."

In Santa Fe Springs, this area's largest purchaser of Central Basin water, Ted Spaseff, director of municipal and utility services, said they would work with residents to conserve.

 

"We are in a drought and need to look at those things and take them seriously," Spaseff said.

 

Still, Spaseff said he needs more time to study the plan and its numbers.

 

Some users say they most likely wouldn't be affected.

 

"From (Suburban Water Systems') standpoint, it's not going to be much of an impact because we don't use that much of their water," said DeLise Keim, the company's spokeswoman.

 

The company serves La Mirada and east Whittier, but gets most of its water from wells in the San Gabriel Valley.

 

The plan would have no effect on the city of Whittier's system, which serves the western part of the city. It buys no water from Central Basin.

 

Mike Gualtieri, La Habra Heights Water District general manager, said he's only concerned should a well go down.

 

But if that were to happen, it could be disastrous because his district would have to purchase Central Basin water, Gualtieri said.#

http://www.whittierdailynews.com/news/ci_10877936

 

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