[Water_news] 2. DWR'S CALIFORNIA WATER NEWS: SUPPLY - 3/20/09

Department of Water Resources

California Water News

A daily compilation of significant news articles and comment 

 

March 20, 2009

 

2. Supply –

 

 

Study: Drought impact dire
Researchers predict billions in farm income losses

Capital Press – 3/19/09

By Wes Sander


When Barat Bisabri received his notice last fall from the Del Puerto Water District that he would receive no more than 10 percent - and possibly none - of his water allocation, he decided to dig a well.

He has since sunk three test holes and plans to soon drill the well, expecting a total cost near $100,000. In October, as the skies began clouding and the pressures mounting over the San Joaquin Valley, Bisabri even tried the services of a local water witch to divine locations for test holes.

"A lot of us are going into territory where we don't have much experience," Bisabri said of the current water situation. "I don't know how much water we're going to get out of the darned thing, but I'm trying it."

Bisabri is managing partner in Shiraz Ranch, growing 750 acres of almonds and citrus in Stanislaus County. Beyond the well, he plans to remove some almond trees, leave some pomegranate trees waterless, and forgo contracted labor this year.

All of which makes him a case in point for University of California-Davis researchers who say revenue losses to Central Valley farmers could total $1.6 billion this year because of water shortages.

The report - "Economic Impacts of Reduction in Delta Exports on Central Valley Agriculture" - predicts losses of $1.6 billion to $2.2 billion in direct and indirect income loss from scaled-back farming practices.

Between 60,000 and 80,000 workers could lose their jobs, the study's three authors say, accounting for 20 to 26 percent of jobs related directly and indirectly to ag.

Bisabri said he's keeping his 10 full-time employees, but operations will be downgraded. Pruning that would normally take three weeks with help from contract labor will take three months this year, he said.

"What I am trying to do is show loyalty to my workers," he said.

Conditions have improved somewhat since the federal Bureau of Reclamation announced in February that its 0 to 10 percent water delivery estimate would remain unchanged for the year. Sierra snowpacks are estimated at 80 percent of average, with reservoirs at around 70 percent.

While the delivery outlook could still improve, the state won't escape from the current drought for a while yet, said Amy Norris, a spokeswoman for the state Department of Water Resources.

"We can't get out of this drought until we're way above normal," Norris said.

And while conditions in 1977 were still dryer, California is impacted now by greater environmental restrictions and a larger population. In addition, water officials have learned the importance of forward-thinking water management, Norris said.

"We can't assume we're going to have wet years coming," she said. "That was a mistake of the past. We could be in trouble again if we don't plan."

The Davis report's three authors point out the possible mitigating effects of a south-of-Delta water market. With voluntary exchanges occurring regularly among farmers, water could go first where it's needed, significantly reducing overall drought impacts, the authors state.

A north-south market would be unlikely given Delta pumping restrictions, but a southern market could reduce the fallowing of farmland and survival-watering of orchards.

"We want to allow the individual districts to get together and trade amongst themselves," said Richard Howitt, the study's lead author and chairman of the Department of Agricultural and Resources Economics at UC-Davis.

Thus the greatest challenge to sparking such a market would involve communication between water officials and users, Howitt said.

"It depends on how people feel about it," he said. "They need reassurance that if they enter into these agreements, they will not in any way, shape or form lose their water rights."

In the end, a grower's gut feeling is a big factor.

Bisabri works as a crop scientist in the Bay Area. His experiment with a dowser last fall didn't produce the best results, he said.

Still, given the recommendations from neighbors - and the desire to find an advantage in tough circumstances - it seemed worth the cost to try an unproven tactic.

"If you look at the history of the world, a lot of farmers are more religious people," Bisabri said. "You have to believe in something beyond your power that can help you."#

http://www.capitalpress.com/main.asp?SectionID=67&SubSectionID=616&ArticleID=49748&TM=42436.36

 

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