Department of Water Resources
A daily compilation for DWR personnel of significant news articles and comment
March 12, 2009
Top Items–
Ocean expected to rise 5 feet along coastlines
San Francisco Chronicle
Global warming is projected to cause ocean levels to rise 55 inches or more by the end of the century. Report recommends phased abandonment of coastal areas and moving state infrastructure inland.
Dire scenarios presented on global warming
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Ocean expected to rise 5 feet along coastlines
San Francisco Chronicle – 3/12/09
(03-11) 18:04 PDT SAN FRANCISCO -- Driven by global warming, the ocean is expected to rise nearly 5 feet along California's coastline by the end of the century, hitting San Francisco Bay the hardest of all, according to a state study released Wednesday.
Nearly half a million people and $100 billion in property, two-thirds of it concentrated around the bay, are at risk of major flooding, researchers found in the most comprehensive study to date of how climate change will alter the state's coastal areas.
Rising seas, storms and extreme high tides are expected to send saltwater into low-lying areas, flooding freeways, the
Vast wetlands that nourish fish and birds and act as a buffer against flooding will be inundated and could turn into dead pools. Constructing seawalls and levees, if needed, could cost $14 billion plus an annual maintenance cost of $1.4 billion, the study said.
The study shows a greater sea-level rise for
Worldwide forecasts
Scientists worldwide forecast that sea levels will rise for centuries even if greenhouse gas emissions are halted immediately, and
Regional planners are recommending that some new construction be halted, other properties protected and still others abandoned.
The study was conducted by the internationally known Pacific Institute, a nonprofit research group in
With
"No other state has done this kind of assessment of coastal risk," said Peter Gleick, president and founder of the Pacific Institute and a leading water expert. The new assessment, he said, puts the state "far ahead in our ability to both identify possible impacts and implement effective policies to prevent them."
Although large sections of the
Flooding projections
Researchers at the U.S. Geological Survey prepared maps of
Large portions of the Bay Area are at risk because European settlers in the 1800s filled shoreline marshes to build towns and cities.
Will Travis, executive director of the Bay Conservation and Development Commission, said the Pacific Institute study struck him because two-thirds of the projected property damage was in low-lying areas around
"We as a region have to get out in front of the state and nation in dealing with the problem. The study shows that low- and moderate-income people will be dealing with it. We have the equivalent of
Lessons from
Earthquake lessons
Just as Californians learned about seismic safety in response to earthquakes, "we have to learn to build in areas that will someday be below sea level," he said. It's particularly difficult, he said, because there is "no certainty which areas would be below sea level." His agency is co-sponsoring an international design competition to come up with designs for sea-level rise.
As the atmosphere and oceans warm, ice sheets and glaciers melt, swelling the volume of oceans. Oceans already have started to rise. Over the past century,
The new projection of a 4.6-foot, or 55-inch, rise is higher than the 23-inch estimate of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the body that compiles findings of international scientists.
In its last calculations, the panel didn't include melt from the
For the regional study, Pacific Institute scientists used the 4.6-foot sea-level rise based on forecasts by a Scripps Institution of Oceanography team led by oceanographer Daniel Cayan, which draws on sophisticated models, satellite sensors and a broad range of data.
Concentrations of greenhouse gases have been increasing in the atmosphere since the Industrial Revolution, and the bulk of climate scientists agree that the gases are trapping the sun's radiation emanating from Earth, warming the planet.
Infrastructure in danger along the bay, coast
Some of the infrastructure at risk along the 1,000-mile- long
3,500 miles of roads and highways
330 hazardous waste sites, including several in
280 miles of railway
140 schools
34 police and fire stations
30 coastal power plants
29 sewage-treatment plants, including 22 on the bay and seven on the
2 Bay Area airports:
To learn more: Read the study at links.sfgate.com/ZGJX.
Source: Pacific Institute #
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2009/03/12/MNTK16DEBF.DTL
Global warming is projected to cause ocean levels to rise 55 inches or more by the end of the century. Report recommends phased abandonment of coastal areas and moving state infrastructure inland.
By Margot Roosevelt
As
Hundreds of thousands of people and billions of dollars of
The group floated several radical proposals: limit coastal development in areas at risk from sea rise; consider phased abandonment of certain areas; halt federally subsidized insurance for property likely to be inundated; and require coastal structures to be built to adapt to climate change.
"Immediate action is needed," said Linda Adams, secretary for environmental protection. "It will cost significantly less to combat climate change than it will to maintain a business-as-usual approach."
Few topics are likely to be more contentious than coastal development. But along the state's 2,000-mile shoreline the effects would be acute, particularly in
Detailed maps of the coastline, published on the institute's website, show that residential neighborhoods in
Roads, schools, hospitals, sewage plants and power plants may have to be relocated. More than 330 hazardous waste sites are at risk from floods.
"The rising sea level could be
Dozens of world-class scientists and economists, many from the
Further reports will examine climate effects on hospital admissions, mortality rates, pollution and the habitats of the state's animals and plants. Dutch experts have been consulted on how to armor the coast with improved dikes and sea walls -- controversial measures that some experts contend will only increase erosion.
Detailed studies, now undergoing peer review, are to be released over the next month. Then the Climate Action Team is to send a comprehensive report to Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger.
Sea levels along
The report estimated that one adaptation strategy, armoring the coast with 1,100 miles of new or modified sea walls and levees, would cost at least $14 billion to construct, and another $1.4 billion a year to maintain.
The report's estimate of 1 to 1.4 meters of sea level rise by the end of the century was calculated using two scenarios envisioned by the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a gathering of the world's top climate scientists. One scenario assumes countries will cut their emissions of planet-heating greenhouse gases, and another assumes a business-as-usual release level.
Despite more than a decade of warnings from scientists, global emissions continue to rise, fueled by rapid population growth and economic development in such nations as
As water warms due to rising air temperatures, it expands, causing the sea level to rise. But another major factor, the melting of the
Ice sheet melting has since accelerated. Dan Cayan, a researcher at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography and a lead scientist on the state's action plan, said the 55-inch estimate in the report is "probably conservative. . . . As temperature climbs, melting is going to proceed at a greater pace. It is not necessarily going to proceed linearly, in the same proportion as it did in the past, because melting begets more melting."
Low-income people will be disproportionately vulnerable to sea level rise, according to the report.
In
Mary Nichols, chairwoman of the state's Air Resources Board, which is charged with implementing a statewide plan to cut greenhouse gas emissions, called the sea level report "blunt but realistic."
"The recommendations are sensible: Defend what is worth protecting, move what can reasonably be moved, try to avoid doing further harm, consult affected communities, prepare to respond to emergencies."
Environmentalists hailed the report as a call to action.
"We can't pretend that the future will behave like the past," said Matt Vander Sluis of the Planning and Conservation League. "The ostrich has to take its head out of the sand or, in this case, it's going to be underwater." #
http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-global-warming-searise12-2009mar12,0,2741152.story?track=rss
Dire scenarios presented on global warming
By Tom Knudson
Global warming is likely to take a greater toll on
The potential impacts – according to a flurry of new scientific studies – include major property damage along the coast from rising sea levels, worsening drought, widespread crop damage, increasing wildfires and a diminished Sierra Nevada snowpack.
The gloomy scenarios were presented to the Climate Action Team, a group of state officials established to monitor global warming and help the state meet its goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels by 2020.
"These reports confirm that the consequences of climate change will be in the billions of dollars, and it will cost significantly less to combat climate change than it does to maintain a business-as-usual approach," said Linda Adams, the California Environmental Protection Agency secretary, who chaired the meeting.
The findings, presented by scientists and state officials, are expected to be published later this month in a report to the governor and the Legislature. They are more exhaustive – and more dire – than those contained in the first Climate Action Team report in 2006.
"We are getting much more detailed information that puts the hair on the back of my neck up," said panel member Tony Brunello, deputy secretary for climate change at the California Resources Agency. "It's going to be a brave new world."
Among other things, panel members heard about potential havoc on the coast associated with a sea level rise of 55 inches, which some climate models forecast could occur by the end of the century.
Up to now, sea level has risen nearly 8 inches over the past century at the
"There is $100 billion in infrastructure at risk and 500,000 people who currently live in areas that are at risk," said Peter Gleick, president of of the Pacific Institute in
Wastewater treatment plants, schools, fire stations, railroads, power plants, wetlands – all are threatened with inundation, the report said.
"We have never fully understood the risks before to our coast," Gleick said after the meeting. "This assessment gives us a much better sense of what really faces us if we don't take aggressive action."
Daniel Cayan, a climate researcher with the Scripps Institute of Oceanography, said the new studies are the most thorough yet presented to the state climate team.
"We've gone deeper and more broadly, so there is more ground covered," he said.
But he also cautioned that the projections are not predictions.
"Uncertainty is a big part of all this," he said. "This is a scenario exercise. This represents a possible outcome that is important for
http://www.sacbee.com/capitolandcalifornia/story/1692446.html
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
DWR’s California Water News is distributed to California Department of Water Resources management and staff, for information purposes, by the DWR Public Affairs Office. For reader’s services, including new subscriptions, temporary cancellations and address changes, please use the online page: http://listhost2.water.ca.gov/mailman/listinfo/water_news . DWR operates and maintains the State Water Project, provides dam safety and flood control and inspection services, assists local water districts in water management and water conservation planning, and plans for future statewide water needs. Inclusion of materials is not to be construed as an endorsement of any programs, projects, or viewpoints by the Department or the State of
No comments:
Post a Comment