Department of Water Resources
A daily compilation for DWR personnel of significant news articles and comment
February 14, 2008
1. Top Items
Study: Key Western Reservoirs in Danger - Associated Press
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Editorial: Rocky water future ahead - North County Times
EDITORIAL: Lake Mead dry as a bone?; Despite doomsday predictions, it's unlikely to happen -
Study: Key Western Reservoirs in Danger
Associated Press – 2/14/08
By Amanda Lee Myers, staff writer
PHOENIX (AP) — Climate change and a growing demand for water could drain two of the nation's largest manmade reservoirs within 13 years, depriving several Southwestern states of key water sources, scientists warn.
Researchers at
"We were surprised that it was so soon," said climate scientist David Pierce, co-author of the institution's study that detailed the findings.
The study, which was released Tuesday, found that if current conditions persist, there's a 50 percent chance the reservoirs will no longer be able to generate hydropower by 2017.
Lake Mead, on the Arizona-Nevada border and the West's largest storage reservoir, and Lake Powell, on the Arizona-Utah border, have been hit hard by a regional drought and are half full. Both lakes were created by dams built on the
Researchers said that if Lake Mead water levels drop below 1,000 feet,
Larry Dozier, deputy general manager at the Central Arizona Project, which supplies Colorado River water to the
"I think they must have made some pretty outrageous assumptions to come up with some outrageous conclusions," he said. He said his agency's own study of the water levels in the two lakes showed they were in no danger of drying up.
"You can't get there from here," he said. "You can't make it go dry in that situation using any rational set of assumptions."
Pierce said the conclusions in the Scripps study are based partially on an estimated reduction in runoff of 20 percent over the next 50 years. He said that figure was used because it split the difference between the 10 to 30 percent decrease in runoff the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicts will occur over the next 50 years.
Scott Huntley, a spokesman for the regional Southern Nevada Water Authority in
He pointed to an agreement signed in December by the seven states and Interior Secretary Dirk Kempthorne to conserve and share scarce water if the
"Really, the main underpinning of this is not just supply side, but also demand side," Huntley said.
"First, we continue to monitor the lake levels to determine if states need to come back together for more dramatic and drastic measures," he said. "Second, we diversify our water sources. Third, of course, is continuing our community's efforts to conserve."
The December agreement established triggers that would reduce river water deliveries to states if
Arizona Gov. Janet Napolitano said that while the Scripps findings differ from the Central Arizona Project's, she agrees with the fundamental point made by Scripps, "which is to say that as our population grows, sustainability is going to require action with respect to water."
"We're still the second-fastest growing state in the country and we still have to be planning on that in terms of sustainability, which is a good concept," Napolitano said. "Water needs to be a part of that, obviously."
Launce Rake, a spokesman for the Progressive Leadership Alliance of Nevada in
"Developers have an inordinate amount of clout with our elected leaders," he said. "They have dictated our growth patterns and our water use for years. That's got to end." #
http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5hDEXdyGntotDdqwVCpys-tbVba1wD8UPP4MO0
Are
Salt
By Patty Henetz, staff writer
Lake Mead has a good chance of drying up by 2021 if water officials don't change the way they manage the
The report, "When will Lake Mead go dry?" says the
Researchers Tim Barnett, a marine geophysicist, and David Pierce of Scripps' Climate, Atmospheric Science and Physical Oceanography division - which is based at the University of California, San Diego - conclude there is a 50-50 chance of Lake Mead being a "dead pool" in 13 years if the system of water allocation now in place remains unchanged.
The study, which the authors say was conservative in its assumptions, disputes the river flow model the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation used to develop a landmark agreement signed in November. The interim agreement in effect through 2026 outlines how the seven
"The mitigation strategies [the states] have for water shortages is not going to work. We can see that right now," Barnett said Thursday.
The Bureau in 1999 began the environmental impact study that underlies the 2007 water-sharing agreement. In that time, the river basin has experienced the worst drought in 100 years of recorded history, and
The agreement lays out how the upper basin states -
The Bureau's final EIS implicitly acknowledged that the Colorado River Compact is based on estimates from unusually wet years and it assumed ongoing shortages as the drought continues.
The Scripps study states explicitly the region is in trouble.
Barnett said he and Pierce were surprised at their findings, which in essence measured the amount of water going into the reservoirs versus the water going out to the lower basin states.
The dead-pool scenario is likely if current
"None of us believe this is the final answer," he said. "It tells us there is a major problem coming."
Similar studies have emerged during the past 20 years. In August, the U.S. Geological Survey took a broader look than the Scripps study at how climate change has set up a self-perpetuating chain of events that ensure the river will continue to shrink.
The Bureau of Reclamation is aware of the science, and representatives defended the water-sharing EIS.
"As of today, if nothing changes, I could agree with [the Scripps study]. But what we know about this river basin is hydrology is highly variable," Bureau hydrologist Paul Davidson said Wednesday.
What's most important, he said, is the reservoir system is working as planned.
"It's seen us through this drought and now it's half empty," Davidson said. "If the drought held for another eight years, then yeah, we have a problem with the water budget. But we don't expect that to happen."
Hydrologists predict
http://www.sltrib.com/news/ci_8258632
Editorial: Rocky water future ahead
Our view: Latest report on dwindling supplies is cause for concern, not alarm
Tuesday's report from two Scripps Institute of Oceanography researchers saying that there is a 50 percent chance that Lake Mead and Lake Powell, two massive reservoirs along the Colorado River, will run dry by 2021 is a much-needed reminder that our way of life depends on environmental factors taking place thousands of miles away.
While we tend to obsess about local rain levels,
In fact, only 10 percent of our water comes from local sources.
The dwindling ability of the Colorado River to meet the demands of growing communities in
Following an eight-year drought,
And the Scripps researchers are hardly the first to make the connection between decreasing snowfall, drought and global warming.
The researchers themselves made clear that their report is a warning, not a prediction.
Even at half-full, water authorities say they have enough water to supply
And it's not as if the folks responsible for managing water supplies have been caught off guard. Water agencies across the West have for years been preparing for this expected decrease in water supplies.
But this report does give all of us an opportunity, once again, to think long and hard about changing our wicked water ways.
While conservation is certainly part of that equation, the most effective conservation program would include free market reforms that make water more expensive as it becomes more scarce, thereby -- as if by magic -- limiting consumption.
Of course, the western slope of the Colorado Rockies is seeing more snow than it has in years. Maybe this problem will solve itself -- but don't count on it. #
http://www.nctimes.com/articles/2008/02/14/opinion/editorials/18_09_522_13_08.txt
EDITORIAL:
For the better part of the past decade, the region's water authorities have attempted to manage the twin challenges of record drought and demand along the
Water officials get plenty of other reminders to focus on the future. Every year or so, environmentalists come forward with research that predicts imminent doom for Lake Mead and the
The study, co-authored by Tim Barnett and David Pierce of the University of California-San Diego's Scripps Institution of Oceanography, lays even money on the lake running dry by 2021, even money that levels fall low enough to halt power generation at Hoover Dam by 2017, and 10-to-1 odds that
"The point is this is coming in 10 years, not 20 or 30 or 40. We're looking it in the face now," Mr. Barnett says.
The peer-reviewed science behind the study relies on worst-case-scenario assumptions regarding climate change.
Essentially, the men are making the case that the cancer of mankind would bring about the slow death of
It's perfectly reasonable -- and responsible -- to point out that continued drought and increased demand will eventually leave
But these doomsday predictions are getting awfully tiresome. Environmentalists issue them for three reasons: to strike fear in the gullible, to raise money from their allies and to spur lawmakers and the courts to craft policies they agree with.
Predictions such as these virtually never come true. From Thomas Malthus in the 1798 to Paul Ehrlich in the 1970s, the forecasters of famine, abandoned cities and desolated economies always look like fools in the end because they refuse to take into account the ingenuity and enterprise of the human race.
As Marc Reisner pointed out in "
But we'd love to buy some action on the odds provided by Mr. Barnett and Mr. Pierce. They can name the amount at stake. Are they willing to put their money where their mouths are? #
http://www.lvrj.com/opinion/15626367.html
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