A daily compilation of significant news articles and comment
June 30, 2009
2. Supply –
Hopes for rain drying up in Valley
El Nino emerging, but it's looking like El Wimpo
The
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Hopes for rain drying up in Valley
El Nino emerging, but it's looking like El Wimpo
By Dana Bartholomew
As the
But many say the warm equatorial current that could spell wet relief for
"El Nino is El Wimpo," said Bill Patzert, climatologist for the NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory in La Canada Flintridge. "He's late. He's stunted. He's definitely not the great wet hope."
On Monday, the
The Pacific Ocean current has warmed up to 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit and could grow into an El Nino by August, the report said, which could bring needed rain to California — officially in its third-year of drought.
The Southland has been hit even harder, with a number of cities such as
From July 1 of last year through Tuesday,
In 2008, a cooler current known as La Nina robbed
So weather forecasters are keenly watching the warming Pacific current that could spell dark clouds in the fall. In
1997-98, El Nino dumped 31 inches across the Southland.
"Nobody is rooting for a stronger El Nino than I am," said Michael Anderson, climatologist for the state Department of Water Resources. "We are scrambling year to year to try to find enough water. Trust me, I would love to see rain. I am hoping."
But what could kill an El Nino is the weather condition blamed for the drought.
Climatologists say a system of currents known as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, or PDO, could overpower the warming trend and parch the Southland.
El Nino or no El Nino, that is the question. And if so, will it be rain or no rain?
"We're still trying to figure it out," said Bill Hoffer, a weather specialist with the National Weather Service in
"Right now, it's a foggy picture," he said. "Looking into the future is a tough nut to crack. A cold PDO is kind of acting in the opposite direction on El Nino."
For Patzert, the El Nino current — named after the Christ child — will likely be overshadowed by a fifth year of Southern California drought.
"The dice are loaded for another dry winter," said Patzert, a research oceanographer. "And the hot summer is a no-brainer. We could be looking at the Big 5.0.
"The chances of a major El Nino at this point are about the same as the Clippers being in the NBA Finals."#
By Hector Becerra
Despite a gloomy June,
From July 1 of last year to June 30—the period designated the “rain year”—only about 9 inches fell, compared with the average of just over 15 inches. Bill Patzert, a climatologist with the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in La Canada Flintridge, said the dry year dovetails ominously with a climate change report released last week by the White House.
Among the report’s findings was that warming in the Southwest was happening rapidly and would lead to scarcer water supplies, increasing incidents of wildfire and invasive insect infestations, and worsening drought.
Heatwaves will become more frequent and intense, and population growth will make these effects even more acute, the report said.
“The heat is on, man,” Patzert said. “We’re seeing rapid increases in the temperature in the West and decreases in our snow pack, so this is definitely a preview of coming attractions.” Southern California hasn’t had an above-average rain year since 2004-05, when
The next year, some meteorologists forecast that El Niño conditions in the Pacific Ocean could lead to a wet winter for
This June was one of the cooler ones. Almost every day was overcast. And the first days of the month were marked by something unusual: rain.
In fact, this June had twice as much as normal. But it still amounted to only about 0.15 inches, Patzert said. “That’s just enough to push the dirt around your car,” he said. “It’s definitely not a drought-buster.”
Bill Hoffer of the National Weather Service in
There are glimmers of hope, at least for the relative short term. Meteorologists from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and from the Scripps Institution of Oceanography in
But Patzert cautioned that the last El Niños forecast were “disappointing” for
Patzert has argued that the region is locked into a more long-term dry pattern. “The last big El Niño we had was in '97-98. Since then we have a history of under-performing El Niños, with regard to our rainfall,” he said. “Even though I’m rooting for it, we shouldn’t get our hopes up.”
In other words, don’t bet against barbecue weather.#
But forecasters see a drop of hope for next year: El Niño might bring a wave of wetter weather
By David Sneed
The
Normally, the plant receives 24 inches, said John Lindsey, a meteorologist with Pacific Gas and Electric Co., which operates the plant.
The rainfall year runs from July 1 through June 30.
Last year, the plant got 13.33 inches and two years ago, 9.7 inches. This three-year dry period was preceded by two years of wet or normal conditions.
On Monday,
Other areas in the county received similar meager levels of rainfall in the 2008-09 precipitation year, leaving the county in dry conditions. For example, the city of
The ongoing drought has prompted officials in
The
The drought is also affecting agriculture. Grazing is hardest hit with forage levels estimated at 55 percent of normal. This is enough for
Aquifers are also dropping. No one has lost a well yet, but some are having to drill deeper, Lilley said.
Problems for agriculture are expected to get much worse if the drought extends into four years, he said.
Meanwhile, there is some reason for optimism for the rainfall outlook next year.
Forecasters say conditions indicate that an El Niño weather event is forming. Such events feature warm ocean temperatures in the middle
“If the El Niño does materialize, it could produce a more normal rainfall season,” Lindsey said. “But take that with a grain of salt, for sure. It’s a rough correlation.”
Only very strong El Niños produce reliably wet weather, and next year’s event will coincide with a longer-term dry period caused by a different weather pattern called the Pacific decadal oscillation.
Such oscillations typically last for 30 years and contain many small wet and dry periods. The dry conditions of the oscillation and the wet conditions of an El Niño may cancel each other out and produce a normal rainfall year, Lindsey said.#
http://www.sanluisobispo.com/news/local/story/768576.html
The
"So far, we're 4 1/2 inches (of rain) behind for the year, and for the month, we're almost every bit of that—3 1/2 inches," said Gary Chatelain, a meteorologist for the National Weather Service. "We were doing pretty good through May. June's been a real disappointment."
Price Bundy of Ida, who grows cotton and corn, said corn ears are just starting to fill out and may be stunted without more rain.
"For us, since it was a fairly decent rain, we were able to turn off some of our irrigation equipment" for a day or two, Bundy said.
"The bad thing is it was not area-wide. It was pretty well isolated," he said.
This time of year is also crucial for soybeans, hay and pastures, said Bundy's father, John Bundy Sr. of Bundy Farms near
Meteorologist Tim Destri, with the NWS in Slidell, said the New Orleans area was more than 10 1/2 inches below normal—or about two-thirds the usual amount for the first half of the year.
In Terrebonne Parish, the dry weather had caused a different sort of problem for Herdis J. Neil, who grazes about 125 cattle on a Dulac pasture usually watered by a 3-mile-long drainage ditch.
The ditch dried out, stranding hundreds of carp, trout, perch, gar, other fish and turtles.
"I thought somebody had killed all my cows, there were so many buzzards along that ditch," he said Monday.
It wasn't just stinky and unsightly; the ditch runs along a drainage levee, and the 7- to 8-foot difference in water inside and outside the levee last week could endanger the levee, said Perry Blanchard, the parish's public works operations manager.
He said a portable pump could be used to move water from one side of the levees to the other.
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