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[Water_news] 2. DWR'S CALIFORNIA WATER NEWS: SUPPLY - 11/5/07

Department of Water Resources

California Water News

A daily compilation of significant news articles and comment 

 

November 5, 2007

 

2. Supply

 

DESALINATION:

Proposal for water plant is rejected; Coastal panel staff finds flaws in plan - San Diego Union Tribune

 

Marin water board considers turning to bay for future needs - San Francisco Chronicle

 

WATER USED FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILDFIRES:

Officials: Wildfires not a threat to water supply - Inland Valley Daily Bulletin

 

WATER BANKING:

Kern officials tour Rosamond water bank site; Partnership developing land at 155th Street and Gaskell - Antelope Valley Press

 

AVEK releases draft for water bank project; Residents fearing impact have chance to look at EIR - Antelope Valley Press

 

CALIFORNIA WINTER WEATHER:

La Niña just unpredictable - Stockton Record

 

POTENTIAL CALIFORNIA CLIMATE ISSUES:

Guest Column: Shrinking ice cap, growing crisis; Impact of melting Arctic sea ice seen in drier California winters - Sacramento Bee

 

WATER CONSERVATION:

Slow the Flow: Conserve Water Now, Save Money Later - Santa Clarita Signal

 

DEVELOPMENT ISSUES:

Water-meter snag cleared up, projects OK to go - Desert Sun

 

NEVADA WATER ISSUES:

Groups say save water, don't draw more; Water Authority says conservation is not the only solution - Los Vegas Sun

 

 

DESALINATION:

Proposal for water plant is rejected; Coastal panel staff finds flaws in plan

San Diego Union Tribune – 11/3/07

By Michael Burge, staff writer

 

CARLSBAD – The staff of the California Coastal Commission has rejected a private developer's proposal to build an ocean-water desalination plant on Carlsbad's coast.

 

The commission staff's 88-page report, released yesterday, says the proposal to produce 50 million gallons a day of drinking water “would cause significant adverse impacts to marine life and water quality in Agua Hedionda and in near-shore ocean waters.”

 

Connecticut-based Poseidon Resources proposes a $300 million plant at the Encina Power Station, at Carlsbad Boulevard and Cannon Road. The power station draws cooling water from Agua Hedionda Lagoon, which is connected to the ocean by an inlet.

 

Despite the staff's negative analysis, Poseidon Senior Vice President Peter MacLaggan said: “We've spent the last eight years looking to the Pacific Ocean for a partial solution to San Diego's long-term water-supply needs. We're looking forward to Nov. 15 and having an opportunity to share our views with the commission.”

 

That's when the Coastal Commission plans to discuss the desalination plant at a meeting at the Sheraton San Diego Hotel.

 

Poseidon's concept is to tap into the ocean-water stream that the power station draws in to cool its steam-powered turbines.

 

The desalination plant would divert 100 million gallons of that stream, strip salt and minerals from the seawater using filters and reverse-osmosis membranes, and produce 50 million gallons of drinking water a day. The other 50 million gallons would be returned to the ocean twice as salty as when it came in.

 

The desalination plant would need 304 million gallons of seawater a day to keep the salt level in the discharge to a level that would not harm ocean life.

 

The proposal has drawn criticism because the power station's use of seawater as a coolant, called “once-through cooling,” kills numerous fish and marine organisms as they are drawn into the plant.

 

Poseidon rebutted such criticism by saying it would hardly increase the number of organisms killed, because it would tap the cooling stream after it left the power station, where the damage had been done.

 

However, the Coastal Commission staff notes that conditions have changed since Poseidon first proposed desalination at Encina in 1998.

 

The power station generates less electricity than it did then, so it cycles less water through the plant. The power plant cycled 122 million gallons a day for the first half of this year, less than half the 304 million-gallon daily minimum.

 

The plant's owner, NRG Energy, and its subsidiary, Cabrillo Power, also plan to relocate and convert the generators to an air-cooled system, meaning the plant would phase out its use of seawater.

 

“Poseidon's project would no longer function as a co-located desalination facility,” the Coastal Commission staff report says.

 

“That is, it would not reuse the estuarine water already used by the power plant – but instead would be a new 'stand-alone' facility, drawing in water just for desalination.”

 

The commission staff report says that, as it stands, the proposed desalination plant does not use the most ocean-friendly technology. It recommends using a “subsurface intake” as a source of seawater. That process draws water from beneath the ocean floor or from farther offshore.

 

MacLaggan said Poseidon has studied those ideas and believes they would do more harm than the existing system.

 

He said that to install a subsurface intake, Poseidon would have to scour a three-mile hole in the ocean, line it with pipes, backfill it and connect it with onshore wells.

 

“The cost of that is $650 million,” MacLaggan said. “More important, the environmental damage is far more than the existing intake.”

 

Poseidon says its plant would produce 56,000 acre-feet of water a year – enough to supply 112,000 average households – and plans to begin operating by 2010.  #

http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20071103/news_1mi3desal.html

 

 

Marin water board considers turning to bay for future needs

San Francisco Chronicle – 11/5/07

By Peter Fimrite, staff writer

 

For a mere $115 million, homes in Marin County could soon be sucking de-salted bay water through their taps, according to an environmental report scheduled for release this week.

 

The Marin Municipal Water District on Wednesday will present a draft environmental report on a proposed desalination plant, becoming the first water agency in the Bay Area to seriously consider using San Francisco Bay for drinking water.

 

The district's 190,000 customers in southern and central Marin will have considerable say over whether water district directors eventually decide to build the plant, in part because the ratepayers will likely end up financing the construction through taxes or higher water rates, officials said.

 

"It's a great deal of money. It's a great deal of energy. On the other hand, it's a reliable water supply," said Cynthia Koehler, the water district board president. "We need to have that kind of conversation with our community."

 

The proposal, as it stands now, is to build an expandable plant that would initially turn 5 million gallons a day of salty bay water into drinking water. Subsequent construction could expand capacity to 15 million gallons of water per day.

 

The plant, which would be built on district-owned land, would suck water up from the end of a newly refurbished Marin Rod & Gun Club pier near the Richmond-San Rafael Bridge.

 

The system would use a reverse osmosis filtration system to remove salt from the water. The highly concentrated salt water, or brine, that remains would then be mixed with treated wastewater from the Central Marin Sanitation District, creating what experts believe would be a more natural byproduct for discharge back into the bay.

 

If built, the desalination facility would be the largest seawater plant in the Bay Area and the only one in the state to tap into an enclosed bay and estuary.

 

The environmental report analyzed seven alternatives, locations and systems, including the prospect of building nothing and also relying on stepped-up conservation measures.

 

The most viable alternative, according to the report, was the expandable 5 million-gallon-a-day plant. Building such a plant would cost $115.6 million, according to the report. Annual operating costs would be $4.1 million during normal conditions and $6.8 million during droughts, according to the report.

 

The amount of electricity needed to run the plant would double in drought years, according to the report. For that reason, district officials would continue exploring alternative energy sources, including wind, solar power and methane gas from landfills.

 

Drinking water is an increasingly important issue all over the state as water supplies diminish and the threat of catastrophic droughts increase with global warming. As it is, the district does not have enough water to supply all of its customers during a drought.

 

The district gets 75 percent of its water from seven reservoirs near Mount Tamalpais. The reservoirs are currently filled to 76 percent of capacity, below the normal 82 percent for this time of year.

 

The district currently pipes 25 percent of its water supply from the Russian River, but the only available pipeline has reached its capacity.

 

The original plan was to build another pipeline to cover the need during drought situations. The pipeline was never built for a variety of reasons, including concerns that Russian River water would someday be cut off as a result of disputes over water rights in Sonoma County, degradation of the aquifer and regulatory actions regarding endangered fish.

 

"We're in a unique position. We don't rely on any Sierra snowmelt and we're not part of the Central Valley or the state water projects," said Koehler, the district board president. "Do we have $100 million sitting around? No. If we were to go forward with this, it would be a mix of borrowing, rate increases, grants. This is money we would have to go out and raise." #

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2007/11/05/BA52T5KUI.DTL

 

 

WATER USED FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILDFIRES:

Officials: Wildfires not a threat to water supply

Inland Valley Daily Bulletin – 11/4/07

By Stephen Wall, staff writer

 

About 3 billion gallons of water were needed to douse the wildfires that ravaged Southern California last month, officials said.

 

The Metropolitan Water District of Southern California, the region's main water wholesaler serving about 18 million people in six counties, estimates about 10,000 acre-feet of water was used to put out the fires.

 

An acre-foot is about 326,000 gallons of water - an amount that water officials estimate two families of four use each year.

 

The spike in demand over the past two weeks comes as Southern California grapples with an impending water crisis that could result in higher rates and rationing in the next two years.

 

MWD spokesman Bob Muir said he doesn't expect the increased water usage because of the fires to produce the need for additional measures to save water.

 

"Certainly, it was a draw on our reserves," Muir said of the fires. "But the more immediate concern is what will 2008 hold as far as water supply."

 

Southern California is suffering through the driest year on record, and the Colorado River is in the eighth straight year of a drought.

 

MWD is anticipating a 25 percent cut in water deliveries next year from Northern California because of a recent court ruling intended to help a fish threatened with extinction.

 

These factors, plus the forecast of another dry year in 2008, could mean forced cutbacks in water use next year and the possibility of 5 percent to 10 percent rate hikes in 2009.

 

The MWD has invested about $4 billion in the past two decades to improve surface water and ground water storage, helping the agency absorb heavy temporary demands on the system when incidents such as fires occur, Muir said.

 

Overall, the wildfires won't have a huge impact on local water supplies, officials said.

 

Randy Van Gelder, general manager of the San Bernardino Valley Municipal Water District, or Muni, said 10,000 acre-feet of water is not a significant amount when you consider the total average water usage in Southern California is 2 million to 2.5 million acre feet per year.

 

But Van Gelder said the increased water demand to fight the fires highlights the importance of conservation.

 

"It's another factor that adds to the need to conserve water and provide additional fixes in the Delta (in Northern California) so more water is available for the whole state," Van Gelder said.

 

Muni, which serves about 600,000 people in the eastern San Bernardino Valley, has no immediate plans to raise water rates or impose rationing, Van Gelder said.

 

About 10 percent to 15 percent of the district's supply comes from outside the area, so it isn't as susceptible to uncertainties that could inhibit the delivery of imported water.

 

Water agencies serving the San Bernardino Mountains said water supply wasn't a significant issue for firefighters battling the Slide and Grass Valley fires.

 

Roxanne Holmes, general manager of the Crestline Lake Arrowhead Water Agency, said her district used about 15 million gallons of water on last week's fires.

 

Holmes said her agency - a wholesale supplier to 20 small water companies in the mountains - did not come close to exhausting its annual state allotment of water that is pumped out of Silverwood Lake.

 

The Running Springs Water District, which receives about half its annual water supply from the Crestline Lake Arrowhead agency, had one well destroyed and lost the power panel on another well in the Slide Fire, said General Manager Gary Valladao.

 

But Valladao said less than 5 percent of his district's daily water demand was affected by the loss of the wells.

 

The small loss can be easily made up by a slight adjustment in the amount supplied by the wholesale agency, Valladao said.

 

He said the increased water demand for firefighting purposes was offset by a major reduction in homeowner and business usage when Running Springs was evacuated.

 

Ken Nelson, interim general manager of the Lake Arrowhead Community Services District, said his district used about 2 million gallons of water, or six acre-feet, in the Grass Valley Fire around Lake Arrowhead.

 

Nelson said there are bigger post-fire worries in the mountains right now than how much water was needed to put out the blazes.

 

"I'm more concerned about the erosion coming off the hills where the vegetation has burned off and that impacting our storage in our lakes up here," Nelson said.  #

http://www.dailybulletin.com//ci_7371925?IADID=Search-www.dailybulletin.com-www.dailybulletin.com

 

 

WATER BANKING:

Kern officials tour Rosamond water bank site; Partnership developing land at 155th Street and Gaskell

Antelope Valley Press – 11/3/07

By Alisha Semchuck, staff writer

 

ROSAMOND - Plans for the Rosamond-Semitropic Water Bank are on a roll.

 

Some 40 or 50 folks gathered for a bus tour of the 1,630-acre water bank site near 155th Street East and Gaskell Road.

 

Visitors included Kern County 2nd District Supervisor Don Maben and his field representative James Welling: Rex Moen, a field representative for state Sen. Roy Ashburn, R-Bakersfield; retired Air Force Col. James Judkins, director of Civil Engineer/Transportation Directorate division of the 95th Air Base Wing at Edwards Air Force Base and some of his staff; Antelope Valley-East Kern Water Agency Director Keith Dyas; and Rosamond Municipal Advisory Council Director Justin Wright.

 

They were guided on the tour by Robert Neufeld, general manager of Rosamond Community Services District and three of that agency's board members as well as representatives from Semitropic Water Storage District in Wasco, and a team from Western Development and Storage, the Los Angeles-based firm that initiated the banking project.

 

"We're taking a giant step forward in providing a secure water supply for Rosamond and the Antelope Valley. We're going to put real water into the ground for use during dry periods," Neufeld said.

 

At present three partners are participating in the bank - Rosamond Community Services District, Semitropic and Western Development, Neufeld said, on property formerly owned by Van Dam Farms. The site runs from 150th to 170th streets west, between Avenue A and Holiday Avenue, and is estimated to be able to store 500,000 acre-feet of water. Each acre-foot equals 325,851 gallons, the amount an average single-family household in the Valley uses in a year.

 

Each partner brings a specific quality to the project, Neufeld said. Western brings development experience and the land, Semitropic has been operating a water bank and the community services district adds "a local face," he said.

 

The partners formed a joint powers authority, giving them decision-making rights.

 

Since Rosamond Community Services District joined forces with Semitropic and Western Development, Neufeld said, the group has received "more than 10 formal inquiries" from agencies possibly interested in participation.

 

One formal offer is being extended, Neufeld said. However, he declined to name the agency.

 

"Until the deal is signed, it's still subject to negotiations - still in discussion," Neufeld said.

 

"The opportunity to participate in the water bank is not exclusive to the Antelope Valley," Neufeld said, adding that interest has come in "from all over the state."

 

"What you all have done here is nothing short of innovative," Cole Frates, a partner in Western Development, told the visitors. "A lot of people talk a lot. You all are doing something."

 

"In a changing landscape, the way things were done in the past are not effective enough to plan for the future. With growth, people say, 'We need water supply,' '' Frates said. "Allowing Semitropic to work in the Antelope Valley has diversified (the water bank's) ability to work."

 

By including Semitropic, Antelope Valley agencies or residents "didn't give up (their) storage capacity," Frates said. Instead, they "gained more storage capacity in another part of the state."

 

The joint powers authority "will store water where the JPA thinks it's most efficient and effective," Frates said. "Semitropic is in-lieu" banking, he noted. "There's some direct recharge, but it's limited."

 

In accordance with the Rosamond-Semitropic agreement, if Northern California experiences a dry year, that region can benefit from this water bank. Likewise, if Southern California goes through a dry year, assistance from water banks up north can help, Frates pointed out.

 

Andrew Werner, project engineer with Western Storage, said water will only be banked in the winter, by spreading it over the land like in rice fields. The remainder of the year, the land will be used for farming crops like carrots, maybe potatoes and onions, he said.

 

Maben asked whether pesticides would be used in the farming that can contaminate the groundwater.

 

Werner said the farming would be organic.

 

And as for past years of farming, Werner said he thoroughly tested water samples at various levels down to the water table and found no arsenic, and minimal traces of other substances, all within the allowable drinking water standards. #

http://avpress.com/n/03/1103_s13.hts

 

 

AVEK releases draft for water bank project; Residents fearing impact have chance to look at EIR

Antelope Valley Press – 11/2/07

By Alisha Semchuck, staff writer

 

PALMDALE - Some Kern County residents have been steamed about a proposed water bank just west of their Rosamond homes: now a draft environmental impact report on the project is ready for public review and comment.

 

The "Water Supply Stabilization Program I - Groundwater Recharge Project," covers roughly 1,500 acres of farmland north of Avenue A and south of Rosamond Boulevard, between 60th Street West and 110th Street West.

 

The Antelope Valley-East Kern Water Agency proposes to store water underground on a portion of the land while allowing former property owner John Calandri to continue farming other sections of the site on a rotation basis.

 

The draft EIR was released to the public Oct. 26 by AVEK, a Palmdale-based government agency that supplies California Aqueduct water to agricultural, municipal and industrial users on both sides of the Kern-Los Angeles County line. AVEK is accepting public comment on the report, said Ben Horn, a project manager for Boyle Engineering Corporation, a company under contract with AVEK.

 

The 45-day public comment period ends at 5 p.m. Monday, Dec. 10, according to a letter released with the document. In order to be considered in the final EIR, comments must be in writing and submitted to AVEK offices at 6500 West Ave. N, Palmdale, CA 93551-2855 by the deadline.

 

Copies of the document are available at the AVEK offices as well as the Rosamond Public Library, the Lancaster Library and the Palmdale City Library, said Russ Fuller, AVEK's general manager.

 

AVEK also posted the draft EIR on the agency Web site, www.avek.org.

 

Benefits of a water bank include the ability for AVEK to supply its customers with water during dry years when the Department of Water Resources reduces the allocation of water from the California Aqueduct, according to a letter announcing the draft EIR. The bank also will serve as a backup if the aqueduct supply is interrupted by something such as an earthquake on the San Andreas Fault or failure of the levees in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Bay Delta.

 

Permanent facilities to be built at the site include wells, buried pipelines and several small in-line pumping, storage and water treatment stations, the letter said. Low, temporary earthen berms will be constructed, similar in nature to the type used for flood irrigation of alfalfa. They can be removed during farming and set up again when the field is used for recharge.

 

The draft EIR, prepared by Hanson Environmental Inc., a Walnut Creek firm, provides at least 300 pages exploring potential impacts on the surrounding community such as air quality, noise pollution, traffic congestion, flooding and aesthetics.

 

Some residents have expressed concerns AVEK would sell Valley groundwater outside the region. But the document said, "The AVEK project does not contemplate use of recharge by agencies other than AVEK and does not contemplate deliveries of stored groundwater outside of the Antelope Valley region."

 

Others worried that 40-foot tanks would adversely affect the aesthetics of the area.

 

"A mitigation measure is proposed to avoid this impact," the document said. "Above-ground facilities, such as facilities associated with pumping stations, wells, and in-line water treatment facilities will be designed … with the existing agricultural character of the proposed project area," the EIR said.

 

Whether the project would cause wind erosion and blowing dust was also addressed. AVEK will comply with all applicable rules set by the Antelope Valley Air Quality Management District, the report said, and incorporate those rules into the document.

 

Residents who live near the project also have raised concerns about potential flooding.

 

The report said recharge basins "will resemble irrigated fields for crops requiring flood irrigation, with a series of temporary earthen berms about 12 to 18 inches in height, constructed in a grid pattern."

 

They will be constructed in accordance with "conventional farming and earth-moving equipment."

 

Because of the tendency for area land to drain from north to south and from west to east, berms along the south and east boundaries would prevent the escape of drainage from the recharge operations, therefore not affecting roads and adjacent properties, the document said. #

http://avpress.com/n/02/1102_s11.hts

 

 

CALIFORNIA WINTER WEATHER:

La Niña just unpredictable

Stockton Record – 11/4/07

By Alex Breitler, staff writer

 

La Niña has unpredictable mood swings.

 

Sometimes she screams and wails. And sometimes she sits quietly in your lap.

 

Climatologists across the country do their best to predict what kind of weather to expect each winter, and the opposing phenomena known as El Niño (little boy) and La Niña (little girl) can be a clue.

 

But as California water managers hope for decent rainfall, records going back more than a half-century show that the La Niña effect - expected this winter - can go either way in the north San Joaquin Valley.

 

"Everyone says, 'La Niña is here! La Niña is here!' " said Tracy-area walnut grower Jim McLeod. "But we don't know what the heck it's going to do."

 

Typically, La Niña means wetter-than-normal winters in the Pacific Northwest and dry weather in the Southwest. Stockton straddles the fence, with one foot in wet and one foot in dry, said John Abatzoglou, a researcher with the Western Regional Climate Center in Reno, which tracks weather trends.

 

The devastating Central Valley floods of 1955? That was a La Niña year. But she also had her hands in one of the worst droughts on record in the mid- and late 1970s.

 

La Niña happens when winds over the ocean blow warm surface water westward, causing cooler water to rise to the surface.

 

This pushes the Pacific jet stream to the north, changing the path that storms are likely to take.

 

Decent precipitation is important this year following one of the driest winters on record. Northern San Joaquin County is considered in moderate drought, compared with extreme drought in Southern California, according to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reports.

 

New Hogan Reservoir on the Calaveras River, from which Stockton draws much of its water, was 38 percent of capacity last week, compared with 59 percent at this time last year. New Hogan and much larger New Melones Lake, on the Stanislaus River, are at their lowest levels since 2004.

 

Camanche Reservoir, on the Mokelumne River, is the lowest since 2001.

 

On top of that, a judge has reduced the amount of water that can be sent from the Delta to cities and farms elsewhere in the state, including the Bay Area and Southern California.

 

State water managers aren't necessarily looking for a La Niña miracle.

 

"I think we would just like to break even this year," said Maury Roos, a hydrologist with the state Department of Water Resources. "The big months are November through March. If we lose December, if it doesn't pick up by Christmas, that's a bad sign."

 

An extremely wet La Niña winter, however, could increase flood risk by springtime, even with low reservoirs, he said.

 

Also, most of the country this winter is expected to be warmer than the 30-year norm, according to long-term predictions by NOAA. That could mean less snow in the Sierra and more rain. Snow is more beneficial since it slowly melts and is less of a threat to overwhelm reservoirs.

 

Even with the reservoirs low, there's enough water to get through another dry year here, said Kevin Kauffman, general manager of the Stockton East Water District, which provides water to Stockton and farmlands to the east.

 

Kauffman watches the long-range projections like anyone else. "But I don't think there's anybody who banks on that stuff," he said. #

http://www.recordnet.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071104/A_NEWS/711040332

 

 

POTENTIAL CALIFORNIA CLIMATE ISSUES:

Guest Column: Shrinking ice cap, growing crisis; Impact of melting Arctic sea ice seen in drier California winters

Sacramento Bee – 11/3/07

By John D. Cox, Sacramento-based science writer who specializes in weather and climate and author of "CLIMATE CRASH: Abrupt Climate Change and What It Means for Our Future," 2005

 

Forget the polar bears. If climate modelers are even half-right about how the Earth works, Californians may soon discover that the loss of Arctic sea ice hits a lot closer to home.

 

Sooner than anyone expected, the changing climate could aggravate a deepening water crisis, the consequence of a surprising planetary-scale rearrangement of weather circulation patterns that tightens the grip of drought across the American West.

 

Water-supply planners who are accustomed to looking for the origins of West Coast climate variations in the surface temperatures of the tropical Pacific Ocean – home of El Niño and La Niña – may find themselves at the mercy of events where they least expect them.

 

The U.S.-Arctic link was discovered in 2004 by climate researchers at the University of California, Santa Cruz. Their computer simulations of shrinking sea ice showed that, outside of the Arctic itself, the most striking impact is the formation of a large, stubborn atmospheric feature off the West Coast that, like a boulder in a stream, deflects winter storms northward.

 

Weather changes in winter would leave California's water supply especially vulnerable. The state receives roughly 75 percent of its precipitation during the season and depends heavily on capturing the winter excess for use during its long, dry summers.

 

While their climate simulations were interesting when events in the Arctic seemed to be keeping pace with gradually warming temperatures, what happened this summer to the sea ice has given them more critical urgency. In September, at the end of the 2007 "melt season," the area covered by Arctic sea ice had shrunk 23 percent below the previous record set in 2005 and was 43 percent less than in 1979, when satellite measurements began.

 

"Every scientist I've talked to has used words like 'shocking,' " observed Oceanographer Marika Holland, a sea ice specialist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo. "The changes that are happening in the Arctic are incredibly large and dramatic, and they're happening very rapidly."

 

Events in the Arctic had been moving along at a different pace in 2004 when UC Santa Cruz climate scientist Lisa C. Sloan and Jacob O. Sewall, then a graduate student, experimented with a climate model from the atmospheric research center to see how reduced sea ice effected regions outside of the polar region. When they ran the computer model with sea ice conditions as they were anticipated to exist in 2050, a curious signal emerged.

 

"The biggest change was over western North America in the wintertime," Sloan recalled, "That was a very surprising result."

 

Along the West Coast, from southern British Columbia to Baja California, winter precipitation dropped as much as 30 percent, and even as far inland as the Rocky Mountains it fell by 17 percent.

 

A climate that is changing rapidly seems to be full of surprises. Among the more disquieting is the fact that observations of real-world changes such as Arctic sea ice loss are coming on much faster than changes simulated by most computer models. The idea of gradual change is deeply rooted in the science of climate. It is no small issue, this question of pace, because the faster things happen the harder it is to adapt.

 

In this case, what just a few years ago appeared to be a problem that was 30 or 40 years in the future now looks like something on the near horizon, an imminent threat. Climate is by definition the statistics of long-term weather, and people who study it are not accustomed to thinking in terms of imminent threats. Sewall, now an assistant professor of geosciences at Virginia Tech, observes that it might be 30 years before researchers have the data to firmly establish the link between the northward shift of West Coast winter storm tracks and Arctic ice measurements, although by then, of course, the precipitation impacts would be very old news.

 

"But I expect, with the rate of sea ice change in the last five years, that if we continue on this trajectory, you're going to see these sorts of impacts happening in the next five years to 10 years," he said.

 

A period of 30 to 40 years sounds like somebody else's concern, maybe something to be passed on to another generation of taxpayers. In any case, it's enough time to build more water storage facilities or make other engineering fixes to a water distribution system that has fueled the state's agricultural and urban expansion since the 1950s.

 

A time scale of five to 10 years, on the other hand, poses a different problem for Californians. It is hardly time to do anything but find ways to conserve and to brace for more of the kind of cutbacks and price hikes already under way in water-short Southern California.

 

So how does it happen that the loss of sea ice around the North Pole – in the summer, for the most part – changes the tracks of storms during the winter thousands of miles away?

 

The bright white ice acts like a mirror that very effectively reflects incoming sunlight and its warm energy back into space. This keeps the underlying Arctic Ocean cold as well as the air above it. The cold air sinks. As the ice disappears, the relatively dark ocean absorbs the sunlight and its warmth and slowly gives up thermal energy to the overlying air. Rather than sinking cold air, a column of warm air rises into the atmosphere, like a bridge piling in a river, and that, says Sewall, "changes the whole atmospheric flow that you're seeing in the Northern Hemisphere."

 

"It's going to do some steering of where the storm tracks are going as they cross the Arctic, and that has influence downstream," he said. "It changes the planetary wave pattern." These changes to storm tracks also affect Britain and Western Europe, but the American West is so much more vulnerable than other regions because almost all its precipitation arrives in the single season of winter.

 

As the summer melt season in the Arctic has become longer and more intense, the extent of winter ice cover has declined as well, and scientists are beginning to think that a critical point may have been reached. The winter ice cover has begun returning to the Arctic Ocean, although recovery is slower than usual. In October, it was still smaller than in any October anyone had seen since 1979.

 

Record minimum ice packs were recorded in 2002, 2003, 2004 and again in 2005, Sewall said, "But 2005 was the first winter when the ice cover didn't just recover and come back. As of 2005, all of that ice didn't come back."

 

Moreover, in 2007, for the first time, scientists saw ice melt away from a zone of Arctic Ocean they thought of as permanent ice pack. "We've got a pretty significant area of water up there absorbing energy, so it would not be at all surprising to find that it takes longer for the ice to freeze up in the winter and that ice extent may not fully recover to the point where it was, say, in April 2007."

 

But maybe the scientists got it all wrong with their climate model in 2004. Call it what you will, it's not the real world: It's just a darn software program running on a darn computer. Why should we take it seriously? Do other models produce the same results – in the vernacular, are the findings "robust?" Sewall put these questions to the test in subsequent research in 2005.

 

First he tested the 2004 results by feeding the same data into an updated climate model from the atmospheric research center, a more sophisticated version with better physics and higher resolution, producing greater detail. Just about the same results emerged – 25 percent less annual precipitation over California and the Southwest, 8 percent more in Alaska and northern British Columbia.

 

The 2004 experiment was what climate researchers call a "sensitivity study" – a single climate parameter is manipulated, such as Arctic ice cover, to test the system's sensitivity to it. Next, Sewall tested the results on a model that behaves more like the real climate: Sea ice shrinks in response to heightened concentrations of greenhouse gases and warming temperatures. Again the West Coast lost winter precipitation.

 

Then Sewall analyzed results from six other climate system models, and all seven models reproduced the same general pattern of lower precipitation in the Southwest and higher precipitation in the far Northwest. The results from multiple models gave Sewall a better idea of the sensitivity of West Coast precipitation to Arctic ice loss. "It's the existence of open water that's having the impact on climate. The ice doesn't have to be totally gone. If half of an area has open water, then you're going to see some impact."

 

Still there is uncertainty. This is the cutting edge of climate research: Translating changes in long-term global temperature averages into terms that matter most to people – figuring out how temperatures and precipitation in different regions are affected on shorter time-scales. Sophisticated climate models running on some of the most powerful computers in the world are not very good at capturing events in this level of detail.

 

In the case of Arctic sea ice, says Holland, of the atmospheric research center, "Using the best that we can get, all of the models are conservative if you compare from 1955 to the present." While a few of the models capture the kind of losses sustained in the Arctic in recent summers, these abrupt changes are smoothed out in the averaging that climate scientists typically employ to create profiles of change in which they have high confidence. But the confidence comes at a price. "What you're essentially doing is averaging out the natural variability," Holland says.

 

To climate modelers intent on isolating the impact of heightened greenhouse gas concentrations, natural variability is just so much random local noise. The Earth doesn't draw these distinctions, of course. In the real climate system, everything is in play at once. Last summer, for instance, the natural variability of an area of stubborn high pressure over the Arctic accentuated the loss of ice cover.

 

Likewise, along the West Coast, the impact of Arctic ice loss on winter storms complicates a set of climate circumstances that already is complex and troublesome. On the heels of a winter that saw one of the lowest snowpacks on record, sea surface temperatures across the tropical Pacific Ocean – which naturally wax and wane – now happen to be in a cool La Niña state, raising the likelihood of another dry winter over the Southwest. Other climate modelers foresee a long-term trend of warmer storms bringing more rainfall and less snow to the Sierra Nevada, and earlier and less manageable spring run-off. Last May, a large group of climate researchers published results from 19 models that suggested the region already has entered a new, more arid climate state. Their study, published in the journal Science, noted: "Almost all models have a drying trend in the American Southwest, and they consistently become drier throughout the century."

 

Where does natural variation end and human-caused change begin? The question itself is an artifact of the way we tackle the devilishly difficult problem of figuring out how the Earth works. Probably the answer is that the sources of change, natural or human, can't be so clearly parsed out – they feed back on one another in negative and positive ways that surprise our best thinking on the subject. Perhaps the more immediate question is: If Arctic ice is disappearing so much faster than the best computer models projected – if they were too optimistic – what else have they got wrong? #

http://www.sacbee.com/110/story/468894.html

 

 

WATER CONSERVATION:

Slow the Flow: Conserve Water Now, Save Money Later

Santa Clarita Signal – 11/4/07

By Stephen K Peeples, staff writer

 

PULL QUOTE: "Even though the state water supply has been impacted by the recent court ruling, it hasn't affected our water supply or delivery to our customers." DAN MASNADA, CLWA

 

PULL QUOTE: "...it's not about rationing water. It's about using water more efficiently." DAN MASNADA, CLWA

 

PULL QUOTE: "It's often better to run sprinklers twice for shorter periods of time rather than one longer period." MARIA GUTZEIT, NCWD Board Member

 

PULL QUOTE: "The feedback we get from customers who use weather-based (sprinkler) systems is that their land looks better, and their water bills go down." MARIA GUTZEIT, NCWD Board Member

 

PULL QUOTE: "We're right on the cusp of a major change in the way we price water in general." STEVE COLE, NCWD GM

 

Along with the rest of Southern California, the Santa Clarita Valley, which imports about half of its water from Central and Northern California, is suffering through the eighth year of drought.

 

Rainfall is 72 percent less this year than the annual average, according to the Metropolitan Water District of Southern California, which supplies water to many cities in our region.

 

Combine that shortfall with increasing demand from growing communities such as ours, and a delicate, aging water infrastructure, which includes earthen levees and dams. Add the September court rulings that protect the endangered delta smelt in the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta by further restricting exports of water to points south. The result: Some Southern California communities face the possibility of increased prices and water rationing.

 

What's Up with Our Water

 

While long-term solutions to the delivery and storage of water to the region remain embroiled in state and local politics, SCV water agencies are planning ahead for the near-term and pushing conservation hard in the short-term to avoid such extreme measures.

 

"We don't anticipate water rationing will be necessary in the Santa Clarita Valley," said Dan Masnada, general manager of the Castaic Lake Water Agency, which treats and delivers water to four local retailers - Los Angeles County Water District #36, the Newhall County Water District, the CLWA's Santa Clarita Water Division, and Valencia Water Company. Masnada also serves as president of the State Water Contractors Board of Directors, and has a statewide, as well as a local, perspective.

 

The straits are not as dire in the SCV because of the portfolio of water the CLWA controls, Masnada said. "We've been acquiring water to meet the need for future growth, which means we've stayed ahead of demand. Even though the state water supply has been impacted by the recent court ruling, it hasn't affected our water supply or delivery to our customers."

 

Masnada said the local supply combines groundwater from two SCV aquifers with imported water from the State Water Project, the Buena Vista-Rosedale-Rio Bravo supply CLWA acquired in 2006 from two districts in Kern County and delivered here via the State Water Project, and recycled water.

 

Recycling and Conservation

 

Rather than price hikes and rationing, the CLWA and affiliated water agencies are focusing on recycling and conservation.

 

"We've implemented a recycling program that will be growing over time, and we're taking definitive action to move ahead with a water conservation program with a goal of reducing demand by 10 percent," Masnada said. "And it's not about rationing water. It's about using water more efficiently - common sense things like not hosing down your driveway, and using low-flow shower heads and toilets."

 

The most significant contribution residents can make to conserve, Masnada said, is by keeping an eye on watering lawns and landscaping, which, along with crop irrigation on the commercial side, accounts for 75 percent of all water used. "It's about watering at the right times of day, and not overwatering," Masnada said.

 

"There's a lot residents can do to save on outdoor use that doesn't cost a lot of money," agreed Maria Gutzeit, Newhall County Water District board member. "And now is the key planting season for some of your California native drought-tolerant plants, so it's a really good time to pick them out at a nursery and get them into the ground in the fall-early winter, when they won't be beaten by the hot sun and have a chance to get established. So if you're going to change your plants around, now is the time to do that."

 

Gutzeit also recommends regular maintenance of existing watering systems. "Evaluate your irrigation system to make sure there no broken sprinkler heads, no leaks," she said. "The next step would be making sure the right amount of water is being applied, that you're not overwatering. It's often better to run sprinklers twice for shorter periods of time rather than one longer period, for example. You water for a shorter time, let the ground absorb it, then water again a half hour or hour later. The water will also get deeper into the soil that way, and you avoid wasting the water that runs off after your lawn is saturated."

 

"Overwatering not only wastes water and money, but also contributes to the urban runoff problem," said Heather Merenda, sustainability planner for the City of Santa Clarita's Environmental Services Department. "When that water runs down your driveway into the gutter, it picks up anything in its path on its way down into the storm drain. We've had problems in the past with herbicides, insecticides, fungicides - anything designed to kill something in your lawn or grass. Overwatering washes all that from the lawns into the storm drains, and it winds up in the Santa Clara River, in our groundwater."

 

Smart Watering Systems

 

Most outdoor watering systems are controlled by timers, but better technology is now available. "If people really want to upgrade," Gutzeit said, "they can go to a weather-based irrigation controller, which will run sprinklers automatically based on a weather data feed from a satellite or a cell signal, or other controllers that work on soil probes, where you stick a little probe into the soil near the plant and the probe reads the moisture of the soil."

 

Also referred to as ET (for "evaporation" and "transpiration") controllers, these "smart" watering devices can be programmed to know exactly when, where and how much to water, and will reduce water wasted by evaporation (up to 30 percent if you're watering your lawn or irrigating fields during the heat of the day), overspray, and runoff due to overwatering.

 

ET controllers manufactured by companies such as Weathermatic (Aqua-Flo), Accurate WeatherSet and WeatherTRAK are now on the market, and some local water companies, including the NCWD, offer rebates on their purchase. NCWD recommends the aforementioned systems (priced between $148 and $649) and offers rebates of up to $480, depending on the size of the system and the number of sprinkler heads, according to Steve Cole, NCWD general manager, who added the rebate program has been in place for two years.

 

"The cost-effectiveness is really dependent on how much lawn an individual has versus a neighbor," Cole said. "If you have somewhat drought-tolerant landscaping already, then you're already saving water, but it might be a big help for your neighbor who has to maintain a large turf area."

 

"The feedback we get from customers who use weather-based systems is that their land looks better, and their water bills go down," Gutzeit said. "It's definitely a good way to go."

 

Water Futures

 

Water runs typically about 90 cents to $1 per 100 cubic feet, which equals 748 gallons. That doesn't seem like much, but the era of cheap water is just about over, Cole said, citing the incontrovertible law of supply and demand.

 

"What we're hitting now is the realization of water as a commodity," he said. "We're right on the cusp of a major change in the way we price water in general. In the past we've always had surplus. Now, through some of the state rulings, the drought conditions, the resource is getting limited and the price eventually will go up, much like oil. All that's coming to a head. This is why conservation now is so important." #

http://www.the-signal.com/?module=displaystory&story_id=51552&format=html

 

 

DEVELOPMENT ISSUES:

Water-meter snag cleared up, projects OK to go

Desert Sun – 11/3/07

By Stefanie Frith, staff writer

 

More than a dozen stalled projects representing about 300 homes in Palm Springs are now free to move forward under a settlement agreement between the city of Palm Springs and the Desert Water Agency.

 

The two groups have squabbled since December over the type of water meter that should be installed on residential projects.

 

The city filed a lawsuit in May. The water agency followed with its own in August.

 

The city and the water agency finalized negotiations during the past two weeks.

 

"This clears any obstacles to development moving forward," said Fred Bell, executive director of the Building Industry Association's desert chapter.

 

Over the course of the last 10 months, Palm Springs Fire Chief Blake Goetz maintained that only water meters approved for fire protection should be installed. Other meters do not protect against sediment buildup, and it was a public safety issue to not have fire protection-approved meters, he said.

 

DWA General Manager David Luker said the meters his agency have used for years have never had a problem and it would be expensive to change to one of the two brands approved for fire protection.

 

Luker said Thursday the agreement between the water agency and the city says that the water meters will not be changed.

 

Instead, the agency will pay to install locks on the above-ground water meter valves. They cost about $100 each, he said.

 

Each new development will receive these locks. They'll also be installed when meters are replaced.

 

"We are going to make them more secure, as secure as we possibly can with these locks on above-ground valves," said Luker.

 

"This is a win for everybody."

 

Luker said there was a "level of misunderstanding" that kept his agency and the city from coming to an agreement sooner.

 

"We each did our best to protect our interest," Luker said.

 

Goetz said the problem was an interpretation of the fire codes, but through the state fire marshal's office and the Bureau of Indian Affairs, he and the water agency were able to receive clarity about jurisdiction.

 

"The DWA is (now) accepting responsibility for their equipment," said Goetz. "I was interpreting it as it was my responsibility."

 

He added that he doubts projects in Palm Springs were ever stalled because of the dispute, though he did say the disagreement "wasn't helpful."

 

"I won't ever agree they were ever really stalled," Luker said. "The market did more to stall them than anything else."

 

Goetz said the city never held up any projects and made a "concerted effort for projects to proceed" during the dispute.

 

Bell said there was "clearly some lost time" on these projects, which included Pedregal, a group of 130 townhouses near the Palm Springs Visitor's Center, and Privado and Delano, almost 170 townhouses near the Palm Springs Convention Center. #

http://www.mydesert.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=2007711030320

 

 

NEVADA WATER ISSUES:

Groups say save water, don't draw more; Water Authority says conservation is not the only solution

Los Vegas Sun – 11/2/07

By Phoebe Sweet, staff writer

 

The latest attempt to persuade the Southern Nevada Water Authority to abandon its multibillion-dollar plan to pump ground water from rural Nevada to Las Vegas came in a report released Thursday. Once again, water conservation by Las Vegans is being touted as a viable alternative.

 

Single-family homes could reduce water use both indoors and outdoors by 40 percent and hotels by 30 percent, according to "Hidden Oasis: Water Conservation and Efficiency in Las Vegas," the report from the Pacific Institute of Oakland, Calif., and the national Western Resource Advocates, both non profit environmental groups.

 

And the water savings can be achieved with technology available at hardware stores, the report says.

 

"The Western U.S. is water-scarce, and as populations grow and the economy grows, we worry that the demand for water will outstrip our supply," said Peter Gleick, a Pacific Institute co-founder. "There are just fewer and fewer places where we can find new water and, at the same time, there are a lot of places where it turns out we can use water more effectively at low cost."

 

But the Water Authority says not all of Las Vegas' water needs can be met through conservation.

 

"We appreciate the input from the Pacific Institute and recognize that conservation must continue to be a top priority for Southern Nevada's residents and businesses," Pat Mulroy, general manager of the authority, said in an e-mail response to the report. "However, conservation is not an adequate substitute for developing an independent and readily available water supply that will provide our community badly needed drought protection."

 

But environmentalists think Las Vegans need to put more effort into conservation than into development.

 

The groups applaud the Water Authority's water saving programs, but say Las Vegas is falling behind other arid cities in conservation . And implementing improvements, they add, would be less costly.

 

There has been a constant drum beat of criticism by environmental groups that insist pumping water from northeast Nevada, the most controversial of the authority's water development projects, will create a dust bowl effect in the Great Basin and devastate the rural, ranching way of life there.

 

Water Authority spokesman J.C. Davis said any ground water pumping would be done in an environmentally sensitive way and would have no adverse effect.

 

"The crisis in Atlanta clearly demonstrates the danger of relying exclusively upon a single water supply," Mulroy said.

 

"Conservation alone cannot avert the need for a source of water independent of the drought-plagued Colorado River."

 

Among the conservation methods suggested are incentives for conservation and penalties for waste, targeting older homes and high-volume users for more efficient fixtures and appliances, and getting businesses to save.

 

Reducing indoor water use has the added benefit of reducing energy costs from pumping of water and treatment of wastewater.

 

"We know (Water Authority officials) have made some serious efforts at efficiency in the past. But they haven't come close to tapping the potential," Gleick said. "And with the growing debates about water throughout the country, we just can't ignore that potential any longer."

http://www.lasvegassun.com/sunbin/stories/sun/2007/nov/02/566652218.html?water

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