Department of Water Resources
A daily compilation for DWR personnel of significant news articles and comment
June 26, 2008
1. Top Items -
Expert says drought to continue 9 more years
Inland Valley
Dead trees tell water tales: What if current drought, lake levels worsen?
The
State renews climate battle: New rules to curb emissions call for a 30 percent cut by 2020.
The Sacramento
Air board to vet plans for war on warming
The
The
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Expert says drought to continue 9 more years
Inland Valley
Wesley G. Hughes, Staff Writer
Straighten your halo and conserve. Listen to the expert. We are at the end of a nine-year drought and the next nine aren't looking any better.
"Stop watering your driveway - nothing's going to grow on it anyway," says William Patzert, an oceanographer with NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in
"When the Pacific speaks, water managers and politicians better listen," he says.
And the big blue body is asking to be heard.
Patzert measures the height of the Pacific from space, and it tells him our climate here is in trouble. The scientist has gone beyond the annual fluctuations of El Ni o and La Ni a. He measures the changing height of the ocean over a five- to 20-year range and sees what he calls a Pacific Decadal Oscillation.
Over about a 10-year period, the elevation of vast tracts of the ocean will change and where it was higher and warmer becomes lower and cooler and vice versa, he explains.
This oscillation has a powerful bearing on global warming and can dramatically reinforce the behavior of El Ni o and La Ni a, dampening or reinforcing their behavior.
Patzert says the last nine years are consecutively the nine driest in a century, and that can be traced to the oscillation.
"We haven't had a big El Ni o in a decade," he said, and it is having a profound effect on the water we depend on from the Colorado River and that is delivered to
He predicted temperatures will continue to rise in the region. Even in cooler years such as the one we are in now, temperatures will spike for a few days, resulting in dangerous triple-digit temperatures and heavy water use.
Patzert says a crisis is looming, and the only solution is for all of us to reduce water consumption by 50percent, something he calls doable. We massively waste water, ergo his driveway comment.
"There are no saints in the water-conservation business," Patzert said. "We could do a lot better without sainthood, maybe just a little bit of sainthood."
He blamed the
Golf courses are a major culprit. They absorb heat rather than reflect it back into space. Global warming has pushed the jet stream farther north, and there is less snow pack.
Patzert hopes we can control our thirst, but he has reservations.
"The world is getting dumber," he said.
If we can't be a little saintly, he says, "We better start handing out condoms in high school."
http://www.dailybulletin.com/ci_9695200
Dead trees tell water tales: What if current drought, lake levels worsen?
The
By Record Staff Writer
Two years of drought have
What if we had 200 years of drought?
It's happened, a number of scientists say. And it could happen again.
Trees hidden beneath the waters of Sierra Nevada lakes suggest
These Medieval dry spells - if two centuries can be considered a "spell" - dropped water levels so low that trees began growing as much as 70 feet below the current surface of one Sierra lake, researchers say.
When a wet climate returned, the trees drowned. But they remain rooted in the lake bottom; sometimes their ghostly tips still are visible when water levels drop in the fall.
"People have correlated tree ring thickness with things like stream flow," said Chuck Parrett, a hydrologist with the U.S. Geological Survey in
Precipitation and stream flow records in
"What we have come to consider normal is profoundly wet," Stine told National Geographic magazine earlier this year. "We're kidding ourselves if we think that's going to continue, with or without global warming."
In published journals, Stine has described his work documenting the great droughts that took place before the arrival of Europeans.
As early as 1960, researchers discovered long-dead trees in Mono Lake east of Yosemite National Park that only recently had emerged as much of the lake's inflow was being diverted to Los Angeles.
Stine later found dozens more stumps - Jeffrey pines, cottonwoods and shrubs - some of which died about 1100 AD, and others of which died about 1350 AD.
Years of follow-up research led him to conclude that a severe "double-drought" had taken place.
He found a dozen large tree trunks poking out of
Even more relics were found in the
The cause of droughts in
This past century, it turns out, has been abnormally wet.
"Drier times undoubtedly lie ahead," Stine wrote.
Similar studies have documented oppressive droughts in the
While many plants and animals evidently survived these dry spells, some speculate that megadroughts throughout the West may have led to the abandonment of American Indian cliff dwellers, who had relied on irrigated agriculture.
In contemporary times, climatologists consider the drought of 1929-34 to be the worst on record, though 1977 was the single-driest year.
Tree ring records give a "fairly good measure" of what conditions must have been like over the thousands of years for which we have no records, said Maury Roos, a hydrologist with the state Department of Water Resources.
They are not perfect, he said.
While climate change may contribute to more frequent drought in the future, it's also likely we'll see more storms and precipitation in those years that are wet, Roos said.
"In the 20th century, we are already seeing more extremes," he said.#
http://www.recordnet.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080626/A_NEWS/806260319/-1/A_NEWS
State renews climate battle: New rules to curb emissions call for a 30 percent cut by 2020.
The Sacramento
By Jim Downing
The state Air Resources Board will outline this morning a plan to slash greenhouse gas emissions 30 percent by 2020 and prepare the state for much deeper cuts in the years beyond.
The bottom line for consumers, according to the agency's analysis: Electricity and fuel prices will rise.
But improvements in efficiency should, on average, result in a net savings on household fuel and energy bills will drop.
"It's a plan that we believe will make our state more efficient in ways that will also help us grow," said Mary Nichols, chairman of the Air Resources Board.
The cuts to climate-warming emissions are required under Assembly Bill 32, a state law passed in 2006 that committed
The release of the plan launches what is likely to be many months of haggling among state officials and dozens of environmental groups, utilities and businesses, including automakers, oil companies, appliance manufacturers and builders.
While the air board is required to adopt an outline of its emissions-cutting strategy by the end of the year, it has until the end of 2010 to finalize the policy details.
This week, both industry and environmental representatives expressed general support for the emissions-cutting plan – though rifts are already developing over parts of the plan industry groups say would dramatically drive up the cost of doing business.
"It takes away capital from what you want to do – including investing in ways to reduce greenhouse gas emissions," said Shelly Sullivan, executive director of the AB 32 Implementation Group, a coalition of businesses.
Jim Shetler, assistant general manager for energy supplies for the Sacramento Municipal Utility District, said the plan puts an undue burden on the electricity sector.
While power plants account for only 25 percent of the state's greenhouse gas emissions, the plan counts on energy suppliers to make 35 percent to 40 percent of the pollution reductions, he said.
"We are being asked to contribute more than we are imposing on the environment," Shetland said.
The air board's mission may already have been made easier by changes in the economy. Today's high energy prices are driving many of the sorts of emissions-cutting changes called for under the plan.
Sales of fuel-efficient cars are up, transit ridership is breaking records and businesses are investing in ways to save fuel and electricity.
But officials and energy experts say regulations are needed to keep those trends going should fuel prices drop. The new standards should also help drive investment in green technology, they said.
"The
The core of the air board's plan – amounting to about 80 percent of the required cuts – is a suite of regulations, including some programs already under way.
Some of the biggest sources of emissions cuts:
• Electric utilities would by 2020 provide a third of their power from renewable sources like wind, solar and geothermal – compared with current levels of around 11 percent.
• Automakers would be required to curb emissions of greenhouse gases from new
• The average energy efficiency of the state's buildings would improve by 25 percent through stricter rules on new construction and new efforts to retrofit existing structures.
To get the last 20 percent of the emissions cuts, the board has called for the creation of a market that would put a price on the right to produce greenhouse gases.
The "cap and trade" system, set to begin in 2012, would allow firms to buy and sell emissions permits. The state would control the volume of permits available, and ratchet down the supply over time. Economists say such a system should help minimize the overall cost of cutting emissions.
In the long run, the system may plug into a nationwide market, which Congress is considering.
Enlarging the trading market will benefit California industry by reducing the price of the greenhouse gas pollution credits and will reduce the chance of companies avoiding pollution control costs by relocating facilities to states without greenhouse gas limits, said Michael Gibbs, assistant secretary for climate change at the California Environmental Protection Agency.
Business and environmental groups disagree on key details of how the cap and trade system ought to work, such as whether the emissions permits should be auctioned off or given away for free.
Industry groups argue auctioning the permits amounts to a heavy tax that will hurt businesses and increase prices for consumers.
Environmental groups say granting the valuable credits amounts to a gift to industry.
"We don't think there's any justification for giving away any emissions credits to polluters," said Bill Magavern, director of Sierra Club
The air board, Nichols said, is trying to split the difference – auctioning only a few permits at first, and more in future years.#
http://www.sacbee.com/111/story/1040756.html
Air board to vet plans for war on warming
The
Matthew Yi, Chronicle Sacramento Bureau
The California Air Resources Board today will consider a draft plan for how the state will fight global warming, an ambitious proposal to require cleaner cars, more energy-efficient appliances, less-polluting fuels and more reliance on wind and solar energy.
The agency's preliminary recommendations also include working with other Western states and Canadian provinces to develop a market-based system under which heavy polluters such as electric utility companies and oil refineries trade carbon credits, according to a summary of the draft plan that the air board released Wednesday.
A major step toward meeting
"We think the plan is of tremendous importance, not only for California but all areas that struggle with the threat of climate change," air board Chairwoman Mary Nichols said Wednesday as she talked with reporters about the plan.
The air board will discuss the plan at a hearing today and will solicit public and industry comment before putting together a completed blueprint by end of the year. The air board must adopt a plan by Jan. 1.
As expected, the outline known as the scoping plan will touch wide-ranging areas of Californians' lives as well as utilities, manufacturing firms and other companies that do business in the state. The transportation sector, which accounts for nearly 40 percent of the state's carbon dioxide emissions, will have to lead efforts to cut air pollution.
Requirements that automakers manufacture more fuel-sipping hybrids or vehicles that use fuels other than gasoline will make up nearly 20 percent of the carbon reductions, according to an air board document.
Other key areas of carbon reduction include energy efficiency in the home (appliances and housing construction); requirements that utility companies provide one-third of their power from sustainable sources such as wind and solar; and mandates that oil companies and refineries produce fuels that emit less carbon dioxide.
The plan also calls for the state to develop a cap-and-trade system that would allow high-polluting companies to buy carbon credits from low-polluting firms. Such a system would be developed in conjunction with nine other Western states and Canadian provinces that participate in the Western Climate Initiative, a coalition formed in February 2007 to address global warming, Nichols said.
At least one industry representative warned Wednesday that while fighting climate change is a worthy goal, a misguided implementation could cause irreparable harm to
"One of the biggest questions is how much is this program going to cost and can we sustain it?" said Catherine Reheis-Boyd, a lobbyist for the Western States Petroleum Association, which represents oil refineries in
The draft plan includes items that are worth pursuing, Reheis-Boyd said, such as cap and trade, but mandates such as the low-carbon fuel standard could prove to be problematic for her industry.
Nichols admitted that forecasting the economic cost of fighting global warming is difficult, adding that the 11-member air board's report on that subject won't be completed until later this summer. But she said she is confident that the effort ultimately could help the state's economy grow by attracting additional investment in startups that produce low-emission technologies and products.
Nichols estimated that by 2020,
Nichols said she "can confidently say that ... this is a plan that works to the benefit of the
Bill Magavern, a Sierra Club lobbyist, said he was encouraged after the air board's staff briefed him on the plan.
"I think this plan is balanced and comprehensive and starts us down the road to a clean energy economy that we need to develop in
To get involved
The plan will be presented today at 9 a.m. at the Byron Sher Auditorium inside the California Environmental Protection Agency's headquarters at 1001 I St.,
State's plan for curbing emissions
Key elements of the California Air Resources Board's plan to cut greenhouse gases in the state by 30 percent by 2020:
-- Require energy-efficient appliances and new building standards to save energy.
-- Require all electric utility companies to provide one-third of their power from renewable sources such as wind, solar and geothermal.
-- Require oil refineries to produce fuels that emit less carbon dioxide.
-- Require automakers to produce aerodynamic and hybrid trucks.
-- Encourage residents and businesses to install solar panels.
-- Develop a market-based system that allows high polluters to buy carbon credits from low polluters.
Source:
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/06/26/MNA411F5R7.DTL
The
By Margot Roosevelt, Staff Writer
Virtually every sector of the state's economy would be affected by the air board's plan, including coal-fired power plants and oil refineries, landfills where rotting garbage emits methane gas and forests, which would be cultivated to reduce fires.
But the California Air Resources Board's draft road map for implementing the state's landmark 2006 global warming law faces daunting obstacles, among them resistance from the Bush administration, legislative snarls and some industry opposition.
The federal government has blocked
Meanwhile, the Western Climate Initiative, a group of seven states and three Canadian provinces, has yet to agree on the basics of a trading plan, much less cope with political skepticism.
In a media briefing, board Chairwoman Mary Nichols called the 99-page document "an ambitious goal that translates into a 30% cut in carbon emissions over business as usual," adding that it might "motivate other states and the nation."
The price tag for individual industries has yet to be calculated, and some companies fear it could be exorbitant. But Nichols said that overall, the benefits to the state's economy, including healthcare savings from fewer breathing ailments, would slightly outweigh the costs.
Given the projected fallout from global warming, which include increased wildfires, water shortages and illness from heat-induced pollution, "The potential costs of implementing the plan pale beside the cost of doing nothing," the document asserts.
Although most environmental and industry groups will not see copies of the plan until today's board meeting, many have been briefed and offered guarded approval.
Shelly Sullivan, executive director of the AB-32 Implementation Group, an alliance of the California Chamber of Commerce and the California Manufacturers and Technology Assn., praised the plan as "balanced and cost-effective."
"We're encouraged that this draft acknowledges the effectiveness of market systems like cap-and-trade to deliver greenhouse gas emission reductions at a lower cost for
If
That would mean, on an average per capita basis, reducing the annual carbon footprint of every Californian from 14 tons to about 10 tons, according to the air board.
"This is the beginning of a process," Nichols acknowledged. "Now is when we begin to talk through how the program will go into effect."
Many public workshops and meetings with industries and civic groups, as well as more detailed economic modeling, remain before the board would adopt the plan, slated for November. It would take another two years to develop regulations to lock the goals in place, officials say.
Beyond 2020, the board is committed to even more dramatic action: reducing emissions by 80% by mid-century, the level that most scientists say will be needed globally, if Earth is to avoid a dangerous level of heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere.
Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger has endorsed the 80% goal in an executive order.
State Sen. Don Perata (D-Oakland noted that bills to implement the plan's efficiency and renewable-energy goals are pending, but he added, "I am concerned that the plan relies on a 'cap-and-trade' scheme that raises more questions than it answers."
Under such a system, similar to one the European Union has adopted, governments set a limit on overall emissions but allow some industries, such as coal-dependent utilities, to purchase pollution credits. The credits can be traded on the market. Heavy polluters could offset their emissions by paying to clean up other industries where costs are less prohibitive, or invest in other projects that decrease carbon.#
http://www.latimes.com/news/printedition/front/la-me-climate26-2008jun26,0,1884615.story
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