Department of Water Resources
California Water News
A daily compilation for DWR personnel of significant news articles and comment
July 21, 2009
1. Top Items–
Next El Niño not expected to challenge drought
Fresno Bee
Parched SoCal pins rain hopes on fickle El Niño
Ventura County Star
Water woes could impact LNAS
Hanford Sentinel
Dry time for a solution
Vallejo Times-Herald
Judge says La Jolla seals must go; governor says otherwise
L.A. Times
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Next El Niño not expected to challenge drought
Fresno Bee-7/20/09
By Mark Grossi
After three years of drought in California, weather gurus are talking about the appearance of El Niño in the Pacific Ocean — raising hopeful memories of drenching winters.
Unfortunately, it might not be that kind of El Niño.
Scientists say it is too early to predict what the phenomenon — a huge blob of warm water at the equator — might mean for California. But many climate researchers suggest it won’t be strong enough to influence predictions of a wet winter
“It is likely that this winter will feature moderate El Niño conditions,” said climate researcher Dan Cayan of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography in La Jolla.
A moderate or weak El Niño means the water blob warms only by a degree or two. But the water must warm up three to five degrees to become a strong factor in wet-weather predictions. Such a strong El Niño hasn’t happened since 1998.
If only moderate or weak ocean warming takes place, many scenarios could fit the forecast, including another drought year.
“That’s one reason I’m not jumping up and down,” said meteorologist Jan Null, who runs a weather-consulting business in Northern California.
Still, it’s the first hint of good weather news in years for California, where a $36 billion farm industry is idling thousands of acres due to drought and water cutbacks for threatened fish species. Water rationing is becoming a regular topic in Los Angeles and San Francisco.
Temperatures near the surface of the Pacific now are rising noticeably for the first time since 2006. It is the classic profile of El Niño, which is Spanish for “the boy.”
The phenomenon occurs when westward-blowing trade winds weaken, allowing warm water in the western Pacific to spread thousands of miles eastward toward the coast of South America. It happens every three to seven years.
The warm water and shifting wind can influence Pacific storms to move toward the southwestern United States. Southern California often can receive above-average rainfall while the Pacific Northwest dries out.
Scientists track El Niño using buoys with sensors all over the equatorial Pacific, recording water temperature, humidity, wind speed, precipitation and other data. The information is
pumped into computer models designed to describe and predict weather.
El Niño has been blamed for droughts in Indonesia and credited for suppression of hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean.
In California, a very strong version of the phenomenon was lurking in the Pacific during 1982-83 when the state had its biggest storm totals on record.
Fresno’s biggest seasonal rainfall total — more than 23 inches — occurred that year. Such strong El Niño events do not happen often.
Is there a chance El Niño will be strong this winter? Yes, but it is small, if forecast models are correct.
Of the climate research groups forecasting the El Niño, only a few predict it will be very warm by January. Most scientists suggest moderate warming.
The 2006 El Niño was considered weak, and Fresno had 6.03 inches of rain. The last moderate El Niño was in 2002 when Fresno had 9.8 inches of rain, shy of the city’s 11.31-inch average.
Indeed, the last time Fresno had above-average rainfall during El Niño was in 1998. The city had more than 20 inches.
“We’ll have to wait until November to get a better idea,” said meteorologist Elissa Lynn of the California Department of Water Resources in Sacramento. “But if it’s moderate or weak, it may not help our forecasting.”#
http://www.fresnobee.com/local/story/1546851.html
Parched SoCal pins rain hopes on fickle El Niño
Ventura County Star-7/21/09
By Zeke Barlow
Bill Patzert calls it the “great wet hope.”
“You say ‘El Niño’ and everyone’s eyes light up,” said Patzert, a climatologist at the NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena.
So when the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration recently said El Niño conditions were returning, some started dreaming of a season flush with water that could drag Southern California out of its drought.
But don’t bust out any celebratory umbrellas just yet, Patzert warned.
“In the last decade, we have had a lot of false starts on El Niño and at this point, it looks like déjà vu all over again,” he said. “The smart money is on another dry winter.”
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center said above-normal temperatures in June in the ocean near the equator portend an El Niño this winter, which can bring intense storms to our region and fewer hurricanes to the eastern United States.
But all El Niños are not created equal.
Patzert said that even if we have an El Niño this winter — and he is dubious — it will likely be a moderate one that could kick the rainfall up to a normal range, an increase from the dry depths of recent years that pushed the state into a drought.
Eric Boldt, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Oxnard, agreed that it’s too early to predict deluges this winter. El Niños can show up without the rain often associated with them, he said. And there are plenty of El Niños that come and bring only an average amount of rain, which would still be welcome, considering that about seven of the past 10 years have had below-normal rain, he said.
“It’s not definite that it’s going to happen,” he said of a wet winter. But an increase in storms would be welcome as the snowpack in the Sierra Nevada shrinks and water supplies in Southern California continue to dwindle.
“It’s definitely a signal but not a 100 percent guarantee that you are going to get above-average rainfall, but it gives us an idea of where we are going for the winter,” he said.
Don Kendall has been around long enough to know better than to get his hopes up for rain.
The general manager for Calleguas Municipal Water District, which supplies state water to most of eastern Ventura County, knows many El Niños don’t deliver the rain.
“I’ve been burned by El Niño previously,” he said. “It’s not something I would be counting on. I’m just hoping for an average year.”
Besides, the state water supply is so complex with so many different rules affecting the water supply, Kendall said, one year of intense rain doesn’t guarantee more water would be available. Having to save water in the Sacramento Delta for the endangered delta smelt is a bigger factor than rain when determining how much water is delivered.
While any free water is welcome, local farmers aren’t dependent on rain to keep producing crops, said John Krist, CEO of the Farm Bureau of Ventura County.
Whereas farmers in the Central Valley rely on water from the state, in Ventura County many of the farmers get their water indirectly from United Water Conservation District, which stores water from the Santa Clara River in Lake Piru and then puts it into aquifers around the Oxnard Plain. Farmers have fared OK through this drought.
“Having a few inches less rain over the course of the rainy season is not a deal-breaker,” Krist said.
Fishermen, though, could feel the pinch if a powerful El Niño arrives, warming the oceans slightly and sending the fish farther north.
During the last El Niño in 1997-98, the squid catch in California went from 90,000 metric tons in 1996 to nearly zero in 1997, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Fish such as sardines and mackerel, which sea lions depend on for food, move north, resulting in a dramatic increase in the number of dead and dying animals on Southern California beaches. In 1998, about 3,000 — twice the normal amount — washed ashore.
The county also was declared a federal disaster area that year because of the flooding and mudslides from storms that brought double the usual amount of rain.
Ben Henke, an 80-year-old Ojai fisherman, said an El Niño in the 1970s decimated the fishing for years.
“It was awfully hard to maintain any kind of a catch,” he said. “It doesn’t do anybody any good.”
A weak El Niño could be good for surfers, said Nathan Cool, chief forecaster for Wetsand.com. If the storms stay out at sea and don’t bring torrential rains to the coast — and the sloppy surf that comes with it — it could be the right mix of enough wave energy and clean waves to make for a few nice sets, he said.
But Cool also thinks this El Niño will be, as Patzert calls it, “El No-show.”
“I wouldn’t expect anything too drastically different from the last two years,” Cool said.#
http://www.venturacountystar.com/news/2009/jul/21/parched-socal-pins-rain-hopes-on-fickle-el/
Water woes could impact LNAS
Hanford Sentinel-7/20/09
By Seth Nidever
A new federal study demonstrates that groundwater levels in the San Joaquin Valley have dropped to near-historic lows as pumping and drought have prevented the replenishing of the aquifer.
The U.S. Geological Survey study found that groundwater pumping continues to cause the Valley floor to sink, endangering the California Aqueduct.
The Aqueduct delivers water to farmers and millions of urban residents.
Other structures that could be threatened are the 2-mile-long parallel runways at Lemoore Naval Air Station.
The Navy relies on the base as a permanent home for about 250 F-18 fighter jets that supply all the West Coast-based aircraft carrier groups.
No runway sinking has been reported.
However, Navy officials are studying the issue to assess how much of a threat might be posed to runways, according to Machelle Vieux, LNAS public works officer.
It's no secret why farmers are pumping so much groundwater: Cuts in water deliveries from the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta brought on by drought and environmental restrictions.
As the water table drops, wells on the Westside are getting deeper. They are also multiplying as farmers try to make up for the loss of delta water.
"I think it's survival for these farmers. It's kind of like having a sick child. You're going to do everything you have to do to keep the child alive," said Sarah Woolf, spokeswoman for Westlands Water District.
Westlands includes about 30,000 acres of Kings County farmland -- 12,000 of which is on LNAS property.
Navy officials say farming is critically important to protect the runways from urban encroachment issues, control dust and prevent wildlife from interfering with jet traffic.
Most of the water for growers on the base is usually provided by delta deliveries. But this year, contractors are only getting 10 percent.
Many farmers with leases at LNAS have decided to either leave the ground unplanted or let the leases expire.
So Navy officials have added their voice to the chorus of Westside farmers calling for an easing of environmental restrictions on water deliveries from the delta.
But Obama administration officials and Congress have declined to override pumping cutbacks ordered to protect endangered fish species that include the smelt, Chinook salmon and steelhead.
Delta problems are blamed for the collapse of the California salmon fishing industry.#
http://hanfordsentinel.com/articles/2009/07/20/news/doc4a64bc2ef1088335910928.txt
Dry time for a solution
Vallejo Times-Herald-7/21/09
By Patricia Wiggins
Opinion
California has always been a beacon of freedom. This is the land of the Barbary Coast, the music and culture of the '60s, the birthplace of the semiconductor and the biotech revolution.
Freedom exists in our rural areas as well, where many folks choose to eschew the city and live on and from the land. Here you can still hunt and fish, here you're free to enjoy some of the greatest protected land and ocean areas in the world.
Water has led the way for the growth of California. Just add water, and you get a state with half its 38 million person population in its seven southernmost counties -- the most arid part of our 100 million acres. Just add water, and you get an agricultural landscape that produces more than half the nation's fruit, nuts, and vegetables.
This freedom to expand, to convert desert to both suburb and breadbasket, has been a hallmark of California's growth and success. But freedom today doesn't necessarily translate into freedom tomorrow -- there's no free lunch.
When I travel the Second Senate District, people constantly talk about water. They note that water is intertwined with our valuable vineyards, and is the lifeline for the people.
They stress that water is key to our declining fisheries, and that the rains and water table feed our superlative forests. And they express their real fears that Southern California is still on the prowl for our rivers and valleys to quench the thirst of growing cities and established agriculture.
This need for water creates an everlasting drought in California. While we speak in terms of "average" rainfall, we hide the fact that two out of three years are "below average." When we speak of "water needs" for agriculture and cities, we suggest that California can't be as productive without endless diversion of water from the northern and Sierra rivers to the deserts of the state.
We must get beyond the concept that there is only so much water, and that the cities, farms and fish must fight it out. Rather than continue with this struggle, we must tap the well of ideas to find the abundance that we Californians are so lucky to have.
Cities and farms must support water conservation in their zoning, choice of plants, application methods and water sources. In agriculture, this may mean selecting plant varieties and rootstocks that are less thirsty, and monitoring the soil to restrict over-watering. In cities, this may mean giving up traditional lawn mixes for less water intensive grasses, and developing gardens that reflect the native ecosystem. Rain barrels, cisterns and thrifty appliances all help as well -- provided that cities and counties allow them.
I have been concerned about water and growth for a long time. As an Assemblywoman, I introduced AB 2924 in 2002. That measure would have required local government approval before water could be shipped out of the Russian, Eel or other watersheds to the north. While that bill failed to become law, I subsequently introduced a new and improved bill, AB 858, requiring study of any proposed diversion of greater than 500 acre-feet per year, which was signed by then-Governor Gray Davis.
The state still struggles to develop groundwater laws, following the lead of forward-thinking counties like Napa. While the state still is hesitant to suggest curbs to water use, the State Water Resources Control Board has placed a significant conservation goal in this drought year for the Sonoma County Water Agency. The state is still unsure about "fixing" the Delta with a peripheral canal, and rumors still persist that the Eel and other North Coast rivers are at the heart of plans to move yet more water south.
Why let our permanent drought achieve crisis status, when we know it will persist in California for the foreseeable future? Why do we cling to a landscape of lawns in the desert? Why can't the use of water be rationally shared, rather than continued as a competition between old users, new users, groundwater users, and the state and federal governments fulfilling contracts written in a fog of abundance?
Where the State fails (generally due to veto), the counties need to act. Groundwater, water conservation, and land use all may come under the purview of counties and local, special districts. Agricultural practices can be made more thrifty with help from University Extension and the farm advisor. Gardens can be more efficient with permission from cities and support from the community and master gardener network. And stream flows and the wildlife dependent on them can be protected by land trusts, parks, water districts and effective zoning.
Freedom is why people come to and stay in California. But we are not free to waste water, to take others' resources or devastate the environment for personal or corporate convenience. And when others do that, it limits our own freedom. Fortunately, we still have the freedom to innovate -- and that will be our solution.#
Patricia Wiggins, D-Santa Rosa, is a State Senator from the 2nd District.
Judge says La Jolla seals must go; governor says otherwise
L.A. Times-7/20/09
By Tony Perry
A Superior Court judge Monday ordered the city of San Diego to shoo the harbor seals off the beach at the Children's Pool in La Jolla by Thursday.
But within hours, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger signed a bill that will allow the city to declare the beach a marine sanctuary and allow the pennipeds to remain.
An attorney representing the pro-seal faction in the two-decade dispute pitting seals vs. children is seeking a restraining order from a federal judge that would block the city from removing the seals.
And Mayor Jerry Sanders, saying the city is prepared, albeit reluctantly, to abide with the Superior Court judge’s dictum, pleaded with both sides in the dispute to remain civil.
The day’s seal activities began with Superior Court Judge Yuri Hoffman declaring, as he has done in the past, that the 1931 deed from the state to the city requires that the beach be maintained as a place for children.
Hoffman said he was not prepared to wait to see if the governor would sign by a bill passed by the Legislature and sponsored by state Sen. Christine Kehoe (D-San Diego).
Within hours, however, the governor had signed the bill. Earlier he had vowed not to sign any bills until the deadlocked Legislature passed a budget. The bill amends that 1931 deed to eliminate the requirement that the beach be maintained for humans.
The City Council, after paying more than $1 million in legal fees over the issue, is eager to walk away and escape further payments. SB428 is meant to allow the city to do that.
Attorney Bryan Pease plans to inform the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals about the governor’s action, in hopes that it will convince the justices to issue an order blocking Hoffman’s order to disperse the city.
The city plans to use a public address system to blare out the sound of dogs barking in hopes of convincing the seals to slither back to the ocean. The cost of keeping the seals off the beach has been estimated at $700,000 a year, including the salaries of police officers to protect city employees controlling the public address system.
For decades the tiny beach was a favorite of families, offering clean sand and a protected cove. But two decades ago the harbor seals decided to make the beach their resting and pupping place. Their feces has made the beach unusable for humans.
The dispute has led to a standoff between the Superior Court, seeking to enforce the 1931 deed, and the federal court, pointing to federal laws protecting harbor seals from being harassed.
Under Hoffman's ruling, the city has 72 hours to disperse the seals into the water.#
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